基于大数据的武汉封城效果与疫后恢复分析  

Analysis of Wuhan Travel Shutdown Effect and the Recovery after the Epidemic Based on Big Data

作　　者：罗名海 秦思娴 谭波 岳雨峰 熊强强 LUO Minghai;QIN Sixian;TAN Bo

机构地区：[1]武汉市测绘研究院,湖北武汉430022 [2]同济大学,上海200092 [3]武汉大学,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2020年第9期5-14,19,I0005,共12页Geospatial Information

基　　金：自然资源部测绘科学与地球空间信息技术重点实验室基金资助项目(2020-3-2)。

摘　　要：2020年年初的新冠肺炎疫情爆发于武汉这一特大城市,又正值春运高峰,城市内部人口的高度密集和快速流动以及城市之间春节特有的人口大范围大规模迁徙流动,导致存在疫情扩散的巨大风险。利用多源大数据,从疫情外部输出、内部扩散和疫后恢复3个方面,定量和定性地评价了武汉封城这一历史空前举措的效果。研究结果表明:①在外部输出方面,武汉封城后第一时间阻断了对外交通,相较于春节前两周的人口流动量,封城后的两天武汉市对全国和湖北省的流出人口分别减少了14.5%和15.3%;相关性分析表明,疫情爆发初期全国各地的主要确诊病例与武汉市流入人口成正比,并与人群在武汉市的分布特征、交通出行方式和各地管控措施有关。②在内部扩散方面,疫情爆发初期,大规模的人口流动使传播风险从汉口片区扩散至全市域,封城前三镇已有相当的感染基数,封城后疫情仍在三镇内部扩散;在扩大收治能力、封闭小区、全国支援、应收尽收等措施多管齐下后,终于打赢了这场疫情防控的“武汉保卫战”。③在疫后恢复方面,武汉解封后城市逐渐复苏,城市内部实有人口恢复至往年水平的80%左右,与湖北省内城市的人口联系恢复至往年水平的64.9%以上;但与全国其他城市的人口联系恢复率仅为24.6%,城市全面复苏还有很长的路要走。The novel coronavirus(COVID-19)epidemic outbroke in Wuhan at the beginning of 2020.The outbreak of epidemic was during the period of the Spring Festival travel rush when population were highly concentrated and rapidly flows inside city,and the population migration between cities were of large scale and great volume,which greatly increased the transmission risk.In this paper,we qualitatively and quantitatively assessed the effect of travel shutdown in Wuhan from the perspectives of external outflow,internal spread and recovery after the epidemic.The results show that(1)from the perspective of external outflow,the travel shutdown in Wuhan closed the passageways of external traffic at the very first time.Compared with the flowing volume of the two weeks before the Spring Festival,the total migration outflow to the nationwide and cities inside Hubei Province after the travel shutdown decreased by 14.5%and 15.3%respectively.The correlation analysis shows that local confirmed cases are highly correlated with inflows from Wuhan,in addition to the distribution of inflow inside Wuhan,travel mode and local control policy at the early stage of the epidemic.(2)From the perspective of internal spread,the transmission risk was widely distributed in Wuhan at the early stage of the epidemic because of the massive population flowing inside cities.There were considerable infection cases in three towns before the travel shutdown and the epidemic kept on infecting more people after the travel shutdown in Wuhan.Not until the implementation of a series of control measures such as the improvement of medical treatment capacity,closed management of all neighborhoods,nationwide support and full collection of receivable patients,we finally win the"Wuhan Defense".(3)From the perspective of recovery after the epidemic,Wuhan gradually returns to normal after the reopen.The actual population in Wuhan turns to be 80%of that in the past years,and the population flowing between Wuhan and cities in Hubei Province turns to be over 64.9%of that in t

关 键 词：多源大数据 武汉封城 外部输出 内部扩散 疫后恢复 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]