基于GIS的长江中下游城市洪涝易发性评价  

Urban Flood Susceptibility Assessment in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on GIS

作　　者：刘娜 金有杰 李辉[1,2] 戴佳琦 陈城[1,2] LIU Na;JIN Youjie;LI Hui

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210012 [2]水利部南京水利水文自动化研究所,江苏南京210012 [3]水利部水文水资源监控工程技术研究中心,江苏南京210012

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2020年第9期57-61,65,I0006,共7页Geospatial Information

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0405700);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(Y917008)。

摘　　要：利用1980-2017年长江流域中下游地区73个国家气象站逐日气温、降雨观测资料,对近40 a长江中下游汛期日平均气温、高温日数、暴雨量的时间变化特征进行了分析。结合长江中下游地区气象和城市特性等要素,建立了长江中下游地区城市洪涝易发性评价指标体系,并基于GIS技术实现了研究区评价指标的精细化、空间化计算。采用模糊综合评价法建立评价模型,并利用层次分析法校正权重,实现了长江流域中下游地区城市洪涝易发性评价。结果表明,长江流域中下游地区汛期总暴雨量呈先降后升趋势,且在2008年之后显著增多;日平均气温和高温日数自1980年起呈上升趋势,且上升趋势明显;城市洪涝极高易发地区主要集中在皖南—赣东北—鄂东地区、沪宁杭地区、湘中地区,相对低易发区集中于鄂西北—豫西南—陕南地区、湘西南—黔东南地区、滁—锡—苏地区。In this paper,we used the daily temperature and rainfall observation data of 73 national weather stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin from 1980 to 2017 to analyze the change characteristics of daily temperature and rainfall in the flood season of past 40 years.Combining with the meteorological and urban characteristics,we established the evaluation index system of urban flood susceptibility,and realized the detailed and spatialized calculation of the evaluation indexes in the study area based on GIS.We used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish the evaluation model,and corrected the weight by analytic hierarchy process to realize the evaluation of urban flood susceptibility in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin.The results show that the total storm rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin decreases first and then increases,and increases significantly after 2008.The average daily temperature and the number of high temperature days have been on the rise since 1980,and the rising trend is obvious.Urban flood very high susceptibility areas are mainly concentrated in the southern Anhui-northeastern Jiangxi-eastern Hubei,Shanghai,Nanjing,Hangzhou and central Hunan.The low susceptibility areas are mainly concentrated in the northwestern Hubei-southwestern Henan-southern Shaanxi,southwestern Hunan-southeastern Guizhou,and Wuxi,Suzhou,Chuzhou.

关 键 词：长江中下游 城市洪涝 GIS 易发性 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]