基于改进参数的山东省生态足迹分析  

Ecological Footprint Analysis of Shandong Province Based on Improved Parameters

作　　者：李中才[1] LI Zhong-cai(Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005,China)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2020年第5期39-40,共2页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：山东社科规划项目“山东省工业废弃地绿色治理机制构建研究”(19CGLJ18)资助。

摘　　要：本文在传统模型的基础上,结合山东省经济、社会、资源环境特点,对均衡因子和产量因子进行修正,运用生态足迹模型分析了2009~2018年间山东省可持续发展程度。使用ARMA(p,q)模型对生态压力指数(EPI)进行趋势预测。研究表明:山东省生态足迹呈波动上升趋势,生态承载力变化幅度不大,生态压力指数呈现上升趋势;未来5年山东省资源环境系统面临压力会逐渐增大。Based on the traditional model,combined with the characteristics of economy,society,resources and environment of Shandong Province,this paper modifies the equilibrium factor and output factor,and analyzes the sustainable development degree of Shandong Province in 2009~2018 by using the ecological footprint model.ARMA(p,q)model was used to predict the trend of ecological pressure index(EPI).The results show that in the past 10 years,the ecological footprint of Shandong Province is fluctuating and rising,the ecological carrying capacity is not morechanged,and the ecological pressure index is rising;the pressure of the resource and environment system of Shandong Province will gradually increase.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态压力指数 自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]