基于雷达短时临近降雨预报的王家坝洪水预报研究  

Flood forecasting on Wangjiaba catchment based on radar rainfall nowcasting

作　　者：严昌盛 朱德华 马燮铫 徐胜 王凯 YAN Changsheng;ZHU Dehua;MA Xieyao;XU Sheng;WANG Kai(School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China;School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China;Hydrological Bureau (Information Center) of Huaihe River Commission, the Ministry of Water Resources, Bengbu 233001, Anhui, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏南京210044 [3]淮河水利委员会水文局(信息中心),安徽蚌埠233001

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2020年第9期13-23,共11页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41877158)。

摘　　要：近年来突发性灾害天气引发的洪水过程频发,研究耦合雷达临近降雨预报的洪水预报对于洪水灾害防治具有重要意义。根据淮河王家坝以上流域的历史降雨流量资料,构建了一个基于土壤湿度指数分布的集总式水文模型PDM。以此为基础选取了2016年流域内两场典型洪水过程,耦合驻马店S波段双偏振多普勒雷达的降雨观测数据,并对雷达测雨数据进行评估;再利用临近降雨预报系统STEPS,分别对两场洪水过程的最大降雨做临近3 h、2 h、1 h和30 min的降雨预报;通过PDM模型模拟洪水过程来对比分析雷达降雨与雨量站实测的模拟精度,研究雷达临近降雨预报在洪水预报中的适用性。结果表明:利用雷达降雨资料对洪峰流量的模拟比直接用雨量站资料更加接近实测值,洪峰误差在±2.7%以内;但雨量站模拟的总体拟合效果要好于雷达,两场洪水过程的纳什效率系数都大于0.8。雷达3 h以内的临近降雨预报精度可用作洪水预报,洪峰流量和洪水过程模拟效果良好,可满足实时作业预报的要求。In recent years,the flood process caused by sudden disaster weather is frequent.It is of great significance to study the flood forecast of coupling radar near rainfall forecast for flood disaster prediction.Based on the historical rainfall and flow data of Huaihe River Basin above Wangjiaba station,a lumped hydrological PDM model is constructed in this paper.On this basis,two typical flood processes in the basin in 2016 are selected,coupled with the high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall observation data of zhumadian S-band dual-polarization doppler radar,and the radar rainfall data are evaluated.The short term rainfall nowcasting system STEPS is used to forecast the highest rainfall rate of two flood events with 3 hours,2 hours,1 hour and 30 minutes lead time respectively.Through the flood process simulation of PDM model,the simulation accuracies of radar rainfall and the measured rainfall station are compared and analyzed,and the applicability of radar near-rainfall prediction in flood forecast is studied.The results show that the simulations of peak flow using radar rainfall data are closer to the measured values than using rainfall station data directly and the peak flow errors are within±2.7%.However,the raingauge measurements have better performance on overall fitting than radar rainfall data,and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of two flood events exceed 0.8.The accuracy of radar nowcasting within 3 hours can be used for flood forecast,and the simulation effects of peak flow and flood process are good,which can meet the requirements of real-time operation forecast.

关 键 词：PDM模型 雷达临近降雨预报 雷达测雨 洪水预报 降水 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]