考虑群体极化的长距离调水工程突发险情应急决策模型研究  

Group polarization-considered study on emergency decision-making model for sudden dangerous case of long-distance water transfer project

作　　者：王雷 王葳[1] 吴斌平 佟大威[1] 蔡志坚 任炳昱[1] WANG Lei;WANG Wei;WU Binping;TONG Dawei;CAI Zhijian;REN Bingyu(School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2020年第9期168-172,共5页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点重点研发计划(2017YFC0405006);国家自然科学基金(51679165);国家重点重点研发计划(2016YFC0401806)。

摘　　要：当前调水工程应急决策相关研究中,对于专家群体决策的意见集成基本采用加权聚合的方法处理,未能定量控制群体极化效应,容易导致整体结果的极端化偏移,造成决策偏差。本文提出一种考虑群体极化效应的AHP群体共识模型,该模型充分考虑决策者的主动性,给与不和谐决策者修改自我决策结果的机会,使群体共识达成过程更加贴近现实,同时能够定量约束群体意见的极端化程度。研究表明,经过模型的多轮计算和修正,在决策个体意见可以充分表达以及定量控制群体极化效应的情况下,实现群体共识决策。将所提方法运用于某长距离调水工程突发水污染事故的应急决策,对专家组群体决策的共识达成过程进行仿真,提高了决策结果的鲁棒性和可靠性,取得了良好的决策效果。In the current studies related to the emergency decision-making of water transfer project,basically adopting the method of weighted aggregation to process the opinion integration of the expert group decision-making cannot quantitatively control the group polarization effect,and then is prone to lead to the extremalized offset of the overall result,thus causes the decision deviation.A group polarization effect-considered AHP group consensus model is put forward herein,which fully considers the initiatives of the decision makers and gives the opportunity of modifying their self-decision-making results to those discordant decision makers,and then makes the process of achieving group consensus more close to reality,while the extremalization degree of the opinion of the group can be quantitatively constrained at the same time as well.The study shows that through multi-round of model calculation and correction,the group consensus decision-making is achieved under the condition that the individual opinions of decision-makers can be fully expressed and the group polarization effects can be quantitatively controlled.The method mentioned herein is applied to the emergency decision-making for the sudden water pollution accident of a long-distance water transfer project for simulating the process of achieving the expert group decision making consensus,and then the robustness and reliability of the decision-making result are enhanced,thus a better decision-making effect is finally achieved.

关 键 词：群体共识 水利工程应急决策 群体极化效应 长距离调水工程 

分 类 号：TV68[水利工程—水利水电工程]