跨区域人口城镇化迁移与城乡居民收入差距——理论模型与模拟分析  

Inter-regional Migration in Urbanization and Income Gap between Urban and Rural:Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis

作　　者：陈海龙[1,2] 马长发 CHEN Hailong;MA Changfa(School of Statistics and Data Science, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China;School of Statistics and Management, Shanghai University of Finance and Economic,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]上海财经大学统计与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《人口与经济》2020年第5期118-136,共19页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71864034,71563048);博士后基金面上项目第60批项目(2016M602948XB);新疆维吾尔自治区科技厅软科学项目(2017D07019);新疆维吾尔自治区社科基金项目(19BYJ050);新疆维吾尔自治区“三农”课题项目(2020-SNKT-04)。

摘　　要：在构建两地区两部门理论模型的基础上,设置以中国为背景的情景模拟,研究跨区域人口城镇化迁移对城乡居民收入差距的影响。主要研究结论认为:城镇化水平的状态决定了人口跨区域城镇化迁移对城乡居民收入差距影响的性质;人口迁入地区城乡居民收入差距的变动率上升,迁出地区则下降;城乡居民收入差距变动率的特征受人口跨区域城镇化迁移比重、人口规模、城镇化水平等因素的影响;人口迁移带来城乡居民收入差距“帕累托改进”的可能。笔者认为鼓励人口跨区域城镇化迁移,弱化户籍限制将有利于城乡居民收入差距的缩小,也有利于城乡居民收入差距中地区差距的缩小。Based on the analysis framework of urban-rural income gap model,a simulation scenario with China as the background was set up to simulate the impact from inter-regional migration to urban-rural income gap.The conclusions are as follows:1)The state of urbanization level determines the income gap between urban and rural residents.2)The change rate of income gap increases in the immigration areas while decreases in the migration areas.3)The change rate in the income gap between urban and rural residents is influenced by the proportion of population migration to urbanization across regions,the population scale and urbanization.4)Population migration brings about the possibility of Pareto improvement.The author believes that promoting inter-regional population urbanization migration and reducing household registration restrictions will be conducive to narrowing the uban-rural income gap,but also conducive to narrowing the regional gap of urban-rural income gap.

关 键 词：跨区域人口城镇化迁移 城乡居民收入差距 模拟分析 帕累托改进 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] F061.5