东亚夏季风水汽输送带及其对中国大暴雨与洪涝灾害的影响  

East Asian summer monsoon moisture transport belt and its impact on heavy rainfalls and floods in China

作　　者：丁一汇[1] 柳艳菊[1] 宋亚芳[1] DING Yihui;LIU Yanju;SONG Yafang(National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《水科学进展》2020年第5期629-643,共15页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助项目(XDA20100304);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK010204);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41790471)。

摘　　要：东亚夏季风每年给中国东部地区带来充沛的降水,是中国水资源的主要来源,同时也常常给中国造成严重的洪涝灾害。东亚夏季风水汽输送的强度、影响范围和持续性在极端暴雨过程中起着关键的作用。这支夏季风气流的水汽输送带可称为东亚季风水汽输送带,与国际上近期提出的“大气河”概念相近,但又不完全相同。东亚夏季风水汽输送带是东亚夏季风最具地区性的特征,也是东亚地区夏季大暴雨和洪涝的制造者。本文根据近百年来的资料,综合评述了东亚夏季风水汽输送带的特征和形成原因,并以海河、黄河、淮河与长江近百年最强的5次持续大暴雨过程为例,分析了季风水汽输送带的重要作用。最后,提出气候变暖可以通过4个方面影响全球水循环,包括气候变暖后大气可容纳更多的水汽、大气环流发生变化、辐射强迫改变以及气溶胶影响的区域性等,这些变化都会对季风水汽输送带产生重要影响。The East Asian summer monsoon brings a large amount of precipitation in East China every year,which is the main source of water resources for China.At the same time,it often causes the severe flooding disasters.The Chinese meteorologists and hydrologists have realized that the moisture transport intensity,the extent and persistence of summer monsoon may play a crucial role in extreme rainstorm processes.This branch of moisture transport belt may be termed as the East Asian summer monsoon moisture transport belt.It can be categorized in the atmospheric river(AR)coined internationally,but it is not a fully same conception,due to its unique regional feature of the East Asian summer monsoon.The monsoon moisture transport belt is a main producer of excessively heavy rainfalls and disastrous floods in this region.Based on the data of the past hundred years,this paper made an update review of the characteristics and formation reasons of the East Asian summer monsoon moisture transport belt.Taking the five strongest continuous heavy rain processes in the Haihe River,Yellow River,Huaihe River and Yangtze River in the past hundred years as examples,the important role of the monsoonal moisture transport belt is analyzed.Finally,it is proposed that climate warming can affect the global water cycle through four aspects,including holding more water vapor in the atmosphere,changes of the atmospheric circulations and radiation forcing with climate warming as well as the regional impact of aerosols.

关 键 词：东亚夏季风 季风水汽输送带 暴雨 洪涝 气候变化 大气河 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]