全球陆地地表水资源演变特征  

Evolution characteristics of global land surface water resources

作　　者：严登华 王坤[1,2] 李相南 秦天玲[1,2] 翁白莎 刘思妤[1,2] YAN Denghua;WANG Kun;LI Xiangnan;QIN Tianling;WENG Baisha;LIU Siyu(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,Beijing 100038,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《水科学进展》2020年第5期703-712,共10页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFA0601503)。

摘　　要：探究变化环境下全球陆地地表水资源演变特征,是当前水文与水资源学研究关注的热点与难点问题。其中,提高无资料地区水文预报的精度是准确评价全球地表水资源量的重要前提。针对这个问题,本研究在划分全球气候-生态分区的基础上,通过对5种参数移植方法进行比较优选,发现反距离空间插值法与物理相似法相结合的模拟精度最高,进而以此评价了1960—2016年全球、各大洲和重点地区的地表水资源量演变特征。结果表明:在柯本气候分区的基础上,利用生态分区指标进行无监督分类,共获得了229个气候-生态分区;基于全球降水数据和四级水资源区产水系数,获得全球多年平均地表水资源量为41.06万亿m 3,与已有研究结果类似;全球、北美洲和非洲的地表水资源量呈现显著下降趋势;地表水资源量呈下降趋势的四级水资源区主要分布在北美洲、南美洲北部和非洲中部等地区。To explore the evolution characteristics of global land surface water resources in the changing environment is a hot and difficult issue in the current hydrological and water resources research.Improving the accuracy of hydrological forecast in the ungauged basins is important for accurate evaluation of global surface water resources.To solve this problem,we first divided the global climate ecological division,compared five parameter transplant methods,and found that the combination of inverse distance spatial interpolation method and physical similarity method has the highest simulation accuracy,and then analyzed the evolution characteristics of surface water resources in the world,continents and key regions from 1960 to 2016.The results are as follows:229 climate-ecological subareas are obtained based on 13 climate regions and ecological indictors,using the K ppen-Geiger classifications method and the unsupervised classification method.The global surface water resources is 41.06 trillion m 3,showing a significant decrease trend.The surface water resources show significant decreaing trend in North America and Africa.The level 4 water resources zones with declining surface water resources trend are mainly distributed in North America,North of South America and Central Africa.

关 键 词：地表水资源 演变特征 气候变化 气候-生态分区 无资料地区 方法优选 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]