新形势下日本对华投资变化影响分析  

The Impact of China-U.S.Trade Friction on Jap an's FDI to China

作　　者：刘瑞[1] 李清如[1] 田正[1] 邓美薇 LIU Rui;LI Qingru;TIAN Zheng;DENG Meiwei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院日本研究所

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2020年第5期41-55,147,共16页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济造成巨大冲击,全球化进入剧烈调整期。一方面美欧经济体极力将疫情责任甩锅给中国,并通过不断升级的经济制裁措施将中美贸易摩擦政治化、长期化。另一方面,美日政府推动供应链"脱中国化"。日本政府出台改革计划,鼓励支持制造业回归本土,或将海外生产网点转移至东南亚等地。日本政府主导的供应链"脱中国化"计划,在短期内不会对日本企业在华投资产生重大影响。但在中美贸易摩擦叠加疫情防控常态化的新形势下,日本可能一方面以供应链过度依赖中国为名,调整对华投资及海外布局,另一方面期待继续分享中国巨大的市场需求和发展潜力红利。The outbreak of COVID 19 has had a huge impact on the global economy,with the globalization entering a stage of adjustment.The U.S.and European economies have tried to blame China for the out-break of epidemic,politicizing and prolonging China-U.S.trade friction through escalating economic sanctions.Meanwhile both the U.S.and Japan have promoted their supply chains to“move out of China”.The Japanese government has introduced a plan to encourage and support its manufacturing industry to move back from China or move to other countries such as in Southeast Asia,which will not have a significant impact on Japanese companies'investments in China in the short term.However,under the new situation of China-U.S.trade friction and the long-term epidemic prevention against,Japan may adjust its overseas investment layout in China under the pretext of reducing the over dependence on China for supply chain.Meanwhile it will continue to investa's market and share the dividend brought by China's development。

关 键 词：新形势 中美贸易摩擦 日本对华投资 供应链 海外布局 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F131.3