中国股市周期与经济周期的比较  

Comparison of China's Stock Market Cycle and Economic Cycle

作　　者：隋新玉 王云清 Sui Xinyu;Wang Yunqing(Shanghai Bangde College,Shanghai 200444,China;PICC Asset Management Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200122,China)

机构地区：[1]上海邦德职业技术学院,上海200444 [2]中国人保资产管理有限公司,上海200122

出　　处：《统计与决策》2020年第17期129-133,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CJY064)。

摘　　要：文章对我国股市周期波动特征与宏观经济周期关联性展开研究,首先划分了1991年以来我国股市的牛、熊市周期,通过构建一致合成指数方法来刻画我国经济周期。从1997年以来我国宏观经济经历了6轮完整的景气增长循环,目前正处于第7轮循环中,最后基于股市周期和宏观经济周期波动走势图的对比分析及协整检验,发现我国股市周期和经济周期之间的关系既非同步也非完全背离。This paper makes a study on the cyclical fluctuation characteristics of China's stock market and its correlation with macroeconomic cycle.Firstly,the paper divides the bull and bear market cycles of China's stock market since 1991,and then describes China's economic cycle by constructing a coincident composite index method.Since 1997,China's macro-economy has experienced six complete cycles of boom and growth,and is currently in its third cycle.Finally,based on the comparative analysis and co-integration test of the stock market cycle and macro-economic cycle,it is found that the relationship between the stock market cycle and the economic cycle is neither synchronous nor completely deviated.

关 键 词：股市周期 经济周期 GRANGER因果检验 一致合成指数 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]