人力资本结构高级化、产业升级与中国经济可持续发展  

Human Capital Structure Upgrading,Industrial Upgrading and Sustainable Development of China's Economy

作　　者：潘苏楠 李北伟[1] Pan Sunan;Li Beiwei(School of Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学管理学院,长春130022

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2020年第10期100-106,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部科学事业费重大项目“全球顶级科学家工作室建设试点综合研究”(项目编号:2016PT05)。

摘　　要：人力资本结构高级化具有知识外溢效应,通过促进产业结构向高技术化、高知识化和高附加值产业转移从而对经济发展产生重要的支撑和促进作用。本文在理论分析人力资本结构高级化、产业升级以及经济可持续发展之间的作用关系及传导机制的基础上,利用1995~2018年的时间序列数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:中国人力资本结构高级化指数整体上保持稳定上升态势,且与经济可持续发展两者之间呈现出显著的正相关性。存在人力资本结构高级化→产业结构升级→中国经济可持续发展的中介传导路径。其中,产业结构升级的部分中介效应占总效应的比重达到56%,产业结构升级是人力资本结构高级化作用于中国经济发展的重要路径。Human capital structure upgrading has the effect of knowledge spillover.It plays an important role in supporting and promoting economic development by promoting the transfer of industrial structure to high-tech,high-knowledge and high value-added industries.Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship and the transmission mechanism between human capital structure upgrading,industrial structure upgrading and the sustainable development of economy,this paper uses the time series data from 1995 to 2018 for empirical test.The results show that the index of human capital structure upgrading in China keeps a steady rising trend as a whole,and there is a significant positive correlation between the index and economic sustainable development.There is an intermediary transmission path from human capital structure upgrading to industrial structure upgrading to the sustainable development of China's economy.Among them,part of the intermediary effect of industrial structure upgrading accounts for 56%of the total effect,and industrial structure upgrading is an important path for human capital structure upgrading to be used in China's economic development.

关 键 词：经济可持续发展 人力资本结构高级化 产业结构升级 状态空间模型 中介效应 自主创新 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F121.3[经济管理—国民经济]