制造全球化、服务本地化与服务贸易逆差:来自中国的经验证据  

Manufacturing Globalization,Service Localization and Trade Deficit in Services:Evidence from China

作　　者：陈启斐[1] 叶群 潘茂启 CHEN Qifei;YE Qun;PAN Maoqi

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,210023

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2020年第9期113-128,共16页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目:全球价值链重构背景下双重外包对我国产业升级动能重塑的机制研究(项目批准号:71703064);中国博士后科学基金:对外直接投资与服务业高质量发展:理论机理和实证检验(项目批准号:2019M650077);国家社科项目:创新引领发展的机制与对策研究(项目批准号18ZDA102);中国博士后科学基金项目“服务业集聚区对企业绩效的影响机制研究”(2017M623098)的资助。

摘　　要：本文利用中国与54个国家和地区双边细分行业的数据分析了制造全球化和服务本地化对服务贸易逆差的影响机制,研究结果显示:第一,制造业全球化程度的提升,增加了对国外服务品的需求,造成服务贸易逆差。制造业对国外服务品需求每提高10%,服务贸易逆差会增加2.538%;而服务业的全球化程度提高有助于缓解服务贸易逆差。第二,制造业当期进口的服务品会造成滞后2-4年的服务贸易逆差。第三,二元开放结构对服务贸易逆差的影响不具有空间效应,OECD国家和非OECD国家和地区的回归结果保持一致。第四,总部经济会扭转二元开放结构造成的服务贸易逆差,ICT技术的发展会加剧二元开放结构对服务贸易逆差的影响强度。实证结果通过了安慰剂检验、IV工具变量和分样本检验等三种稳健性检验,因此回归结果是无偏一致有效的。This paper used the data of bilateral subdivided industries in China and 54 countries to analyze the impact mechanism of the dualistic open structure on the trade deficit in service.The results show that:Firstly,the increase in the degree of globalization of the manufacturing industry increases the demand for foreign services,resulting in trade deficit in service.When the manufacturing industry’s demand for foreign services rises by 10%,the trade deficit in service will increase by 2.538%;the increase in degree of globalization of the service industry will help ease the trade deficit in service.Secondly,the impact of the dualistic open structure on the trade deficit in service has a significant time effect.The service products imported by the manufacturing industry in the current period will cause trade deficit in service in the next 2-4 years.Thirdly,the impact of the dualistic open structure on the trade deficit in service does not have a spatial effect.The regression results of OECD countries and non-OECD countries are consistent.Fourthly,the headquarter economy will reverse the trade deficit in service caused by the dualistic open structure.The development of ICT will exacerbate the impact of the dualistic open structure on the trade deficit in service.

关 键 词：二元开放结构 服务贸易逆差 全球价值链 服务外包 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]