欧佩克:由盛到衰或将走向终结?  

OPEC,from its heyday to decadence,or will it end?

作　　者：罗继雨 刘朝全[1] 石卫[1] LUO Jiyu;LIU Chaoquan;SHI Wei(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2020年第9期10-17,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：1960年成立的欧佩克已年至花甲,梳理其发展轨迹可大致划分以下几个阶段:1960-1972年,快速崛起;1973-1980年,影响力如日中天;1981-2014年,内忧外患显颓势;2014年以后,影响力开始明显衰减。预期到2030年前后,随着新能源发展日新月异以及电动汽车技术的突破,燃油车将加速退出历史舞台,石油可能从燃料属性为主逐步向化工原料属性为主过渡,欧佩克也将随着燃料石油消费的大幅减少而日渐式微;到2050年前后,能源革命将加速能源转型,越来越多的地区有望实现或接近实现零碳排放,石油主要用作燃料的历史将结束,欧佩克或将走向终结。Founded in 1960,OPEC is meeting its 60th anniversary experienced the following stages as follows.It rose rapidly from 1960-1972,its influence reached the utmost from 1973-1980,the decline appeared under the influence of internal and external troubles from 1981-2014,and its influence began to wane markedly after 2014.It is expected that the fuel vehicle will be withdrawn from the stage of history,petroleum may gradually transform from fuel attribute to chemical raw material attribute,OPEC,will wither as consumption of fuel and petroleum declines sharply as well by 2030 as the rapid development of new energy and breakthroughs in EVs technology.By around 2050,the energy revolution will accelerate the energy transformation,the history of oil as the main fuel of communication vehicles will be over,and OPEC will come to an end consequently with more regions on track to achieve or close to zero carbon emissions.

关 键 词：欧佩克 影响力 国际石油市场 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]