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作 者:石洪宇 王利宁[1,2] 李玮 于杰 周畅 SHI Hongyu;WANG Lining;LI Wei;YU Jie;ZHOU Chang(CNPC Economic&Technology Research Institute;Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast,CNPC;Drilling Technology Service Company,BHDC;PetroChina Dagang Oilfield Material Supply and Marketing Company;China Petroleum Engineering&Construction Corporation)
机构地区:[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室 [3]中国石油集团渤海钻探钻井技术服务公司 [4]中国石油大港油田物资供销公司 [5]中国石油工程建设有限公司
出 处:《国际石油经济》2020年第9期49-56,共8页International Petroleum Economics
摘 要:全球石油市场呈现石油需求与经济走势高度相关,交通用油主导需求增长,技术变革提升供应能力,北美供应占比提升,原油品质愈加轻质化,油品贸易所占比例不断上升,贸易市场不稳定性加强等特征和趋势。未来,全球石油市场的部分特征和趋势将发生变化,表现为:石油需求正逐步与经济增长脱钩,石油原料属性更加凸显,中东将重新主导原油供应增长并推动原油重质化,数字化转型推动油气行业发展,石油市场不稳定性进一步加剧等。中国应充分利用好战略买方优势,更大程度地发挥市场需求影响力;加强供应体系建设,提高油气自主控制力;生产企业应充分考虑原油重质化趋势,积极研究先进的加氢处理技术。The global oil market shows the high correlation between oil demand and economic trend.The growing importance of transportation oil demand,the improvement of supply capacity through technological changes,the obvious eastward trend of oil trade due to increase of North America’s supply,the trend of lighter crude oil,the increase of oil product trade proportion,and the instability of trade market are the current characteristics and trends.Looking forward,it believes that some of the characteristics will change sharply as the trend that global oil demand is gradually decoupled from economic growth,the crude material properties will be more obvious,the Middle East will once again dominate oil supply growth and push for heavy crude,the digital transformation will promote the development of oil and gas industry,and the instability of oil market will be further intensified.Therefore,it is suggested that China should take full advantage of the strategic buyer,play a good role in the market demand,strengthen the construction of supply system,and improve the independent control of oil and gas.Refiners should fully consider the trend of heavy crude oil quality,and actively study advanced hydrotreating technology.
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