合成橡胶产量的影响因素分析及预测  

Analysis and forecast of influencing factors of synthetic rubber output

作　　者：黄巧东 范兴铎 彭樟林 傅瑜杭 刘建超 吴熠婷 Huang Qiaodong;Fan Xingduo;Peng Zhanglin;Fu Yuhang;Liu Jianchao;Yiting Wu(Jiyang College of Zhejiang A&F University,Zhuji 311800,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学暨阳学院,浙江诸暨311800

出　　处：《橡塑技术与装备》2020年第19期5-11,共7页China Rubber/Plastics Technology and Equipment

基　　金：院级大学生科技创新活动(JYKC1908)。

摘　　要：橡胶是国家战略安全储备物资,分析及预测合成橡胶产量对我国工业发展具有重要意义。本文旨在探索影响我国合成橡胶产量的影响因素,探究合成橡胶产量的变化规律。通过规律的分析,来较为准确的预测未来几年我国橡胶市场需求,以此制定产量计划。通过使用SPSS软件,对2006至2019年的高速公路里程、子午胎产量、橡胶轮胎外胎产量、民用汽车保有量、天然橡乳进口额建立线性回归模型进行相关性分析。通过多元线性回归模型的验证,数据模拟结果优秀,可以得出交通运输行业发展等因素对合成橡胶产量影响显著。其中子午胎产量与民用汽车保有量对合成橡胶总产量有较大的影响关系。高速公路里程与天然橡胶进口量对合成橡胶产量有较为一般的影响关系。利用交通运输行业的发展可以有效促进橡胶产量的增长,另外我国需要政策鼓励橡胶园的种植。通过合成橡胶产量的不同影响因素分析,和国内外市场的变化,可以制定产量计划,防止产能过剩或不足。Rubber is a national strategic safety reserve material.Analysis and prediction of synthetic rubber output is of great significance to the development of our country's industry.This article aims to explore the influencing factors of synthetic rubber production in my country,and explore the changing laws of synthetic rubber production.Through regular analysis,we can more accurately predict the demand of our country's rubber market in the next few years and formulate a production plan.By using SPSS software,a linear regression model was established for correlation analysis of highway mileage,radial tire production,rubber tire production,civilian vehicle ownership,and natural rubber imports from 2006 to 2019.Through the verification of the multiple linear regression model,the data simulation results are excellent,and it can be concluded that factors such as the development of the transportation industry have a significant impact on the production of synthetic rubber.Among them,the output of radial tires and the ownership of civilian vehicles have a greater impact on the total output of synthetic rubber.Highway mileage and natural rubber imports have a relatively general impact on synthetic rubber production.Using the development of the transportation industry can effectively promote the growth of rubber production.In addition,our country needs policies to encourage rubber plantations.Through analysis of different influencing factors of synthetic rubber production and changes in domestic and foreign markets,production plans can be made to prevent overcapacity or insufficient capacity.

关 键 词：合成橡胶产量 子午胎产量 民用汽车保有量 橡胶市场需求 多元回归分析 

分 类 号：TQ332[化学工程—橡胶工业]