内生人口变化对长期经济增长的影响——基于财政政策的视角  

Endogenous Population Changes and Its Influence on Economic Growth in the Long Run:In the View of Fiscal Policy

作　　者：丁宏[1] Ding Hong(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,300071

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2020年第4期46-65,共20页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代中国预算绩效管理改革研究”(19ZDA071);天津社会科学基金“内生人口变化对长期经济增长的影响”的资助。

摘　　要：宏观经济理论一般认为要素供给,例如技术进步、资本积累以及人口增加,会促进经济增长,而需求政策,例如财政政策和货币政策,则仅仅会引起短期的经济波动。本文通过构建含有政府财政政策的内生人口经济增长模型,解释了财政政策也能够影响长期经济增长,其中一个重要的传导机制就是内生的人口增长。具体来说,本文将人口增长和资本存量内生于经济增长模型之中,分析了政府支出占产出的比例、所得税率及消费税率对人口增长率及经济增长率的影响。研究显示,政府支出占产出比例增加,不利于人口增长率提高,经济增长率呈现不确定的反应;如果民众不追求资本积累,财政政策对经济增长率则会产生正面影响。所得税率提高,有利于提高人口增长率,但不利于促进经济增长;如果民众不去追求资本积累,则会增加其对经济增长率的不利影响。当政府提高消费税率时,人口增长率及经济增长率均呈现不确定的反应;如果民众不去追求资本积累,则会增加消费税率对经济增长率的不利影响。According to macroeconomic theories,economic growth is generally determined by technology progress,capital accumulation and population growth,while demand policies such as fiscal policy and monetary policy just cause economic fluctuation in the short run.This paper builds a theoretical model with endogenous population growth and fiscal policy to explain economic growth in the long run.One of important transmission mechanism is endogenous population growth.Based on this theoretical model,this paper examines the effects of increases in the ratio of government spending in output,the income tax rate,and the consumption tax rate on population growth and economic growth,respectively.The analytic outcomes of this thesis show that an increase in the ratio of government spending in output leads to a negative effect on population growth and an ambiguous effect on economic growth.If individuals do not care about capital accumulation,the government's fiscal policy will bring a positive effect on economic growth.When the government raises the income tax rate,it will lead to a positive effect on population growth and a negative effect on economic growth.If the desire for capital accumulation is not present,then there will be more negative effect on economic growth.An increase in the consumption tax rate results in an uncertain effect on population growth and economic growth.If individuals do not care about capital accumulation,a rise in the consumption tax rate will bring a negative effect on economic growth.

关 键 词：人口增长 政府支出比重 所得税率 消费税率 经济增长 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F124F812.0