我国体育产业结构升级的就业效应——基于向量误差修正模型的实证分析  

Employment Effect of Sports Industry Structure Upgrade in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Error Correction Model

作　　者：夏铭娜 徐开娟[2,3] 黄海燕 XIA Mingna;XU Kaijuan;HUANG Haiyan(University Office,Shanghai University of Sport,Shanghai 200438,China;Sports and Health Industry Collaborative Innovation Center,Shanghai University of Sport,Shanghai 200438,China;School of Management,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海体育学院学院办公室,上海200438 [2]上海体育学院运动与健康产业协同创新中心,上海200438 [3]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《上海体育学院学报》2020年第10期75-83,共9页Journal of Shanghai University of Sport

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA355);国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BTY008)。

摘　　要：体育产业在吸纳就业人口、改善就业结构、提升就业质量等方面发挥重要作用。基于2006—2018年体育产业就业数据,利用就业弹性和向量误差修正(VECM)模型,对我国体育产业结构升级的就业影响机制进行实证分析。结果显示:随着我国体育产业结构的不断优化,体育服务业的就业弹性整体较高,显示出良好的就业潜力和增长空间,体育用品制造业对就业的吸纳能力减弱甚至出现负面影响。体育产业结构升级不仅产生"就业创造",也存在一定程度的"就业破坏":在长期内体育产业结构高级化指数每提升1%,体育产业就业人数增加0.788%;在短期内体育产业结构的不断高级化会引起结构性失业,体育产业结构高级化指数每提升1%,体育产业就业人数减少0.247%。为进一步释放我国体育产业的就业潜力,提出:充分发挥产业结构升级的就业创造效应;兼顾缓解短期就业破坏效应;构建"三位一体"的体育产业就业协同机制。Sports industry plays an important role in absorbing more employment,improving the employment structure,and improving the quality of employment.Based on the employment data of the sports industry from2006 to 2018,the employment elasticity and VECM are used to conduct an empirical test on the employment impact mechanism of sports industry structure upgrade.The results show that with the continuous optimization of China’s sports industry structure,the overall employment elasticity of the sports service industry is relatively high,showing good employment potential and growth space. The sports goods manufacturing industry has weakened or even negatively affected employment absorption capacity on the other hand.The upgrade not only produces "employment creation" but also has a certain degree of "destructive effect" :for every 1% increase in the advanced index of the sports industry structure,the number of people employed in the sports industry will increase by 0.788%;for every 1% increase in the advanced index of the sports industry structure,the number of employed persons will decrease by 0.247% in the short term.To further unleash the employment potential of the sports industry,suggestions are put forward including sressing the employment creation effect of industrial structure upgrading,taking into account the alleviation of short-term employment destruction,and establishing the "three-for-one" sports industry employment coordination mechanism.

关 键 词：体育产业 产业结构 就业效应 就业创造 就业破坏 向量误差修正(VECM)模型 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]