股价崩盘预期风险与企业投资动态关系  

The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Price Crash Risk and Enterprise Investment

作　　者：付璠洁 蒋艺翅 姚树洁[1,2,3] FU Fanjie;JIANG Yichi;YAO Shujie(School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China;College of Economics and Management,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510000,China;University of Nottingham Ningbo China,Ningbo 315000,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400045 [2]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510000 [3]宁波诺丁汉大学经济学院,浙江宁波315000

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2020年第5期64-73,共10页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“习近平总书记关于扶贫工作的重要论述的理论和实证基础及精准扶贫效果研究”(18ZDA005);重庆市研究生科研创新项目“基于新结构经济学的能源结构转型与碳排放峰值研究”(CYB19025)。

摘　　要：本文以2009—2017年中国A股上市公司为样本,研究股价崩盘风险对企业投资水平的影响。实证研究发现,在控制了其他影响企业投资水平的因素之后,上市公司股价崩盘风险越高,企业投资水平越高,但这种基于迎合目的的投资是不可持续的,长期来看,股价崩盘风险与公司投资水平最终会呈倒U型关系。同时,股价崩盘风险也会通过投资者情绪作为中介渠道产生遮掩效应去影响企业投资水平。以上研究进一步证实和巩固了迎合理论,对A股上市公司的投资行为也有重要的战略意义。在应对股票崩盘风险时,企业可以通过投资以增强市场及投资者信心,但是,企业不能简单地通过持续追加投资去维持股票价格的稳定,而应该着重投资及内部管理质量,因为只有公司的发展水平确实提高才能真正迎合投资者需求。This paper takes China’s A-share listed companies in 20092017 as a sample to study the impact of stock price crash risk on corporate investment.After controlling other factors affecting firm investment,it is found that stock price crash risk leads to the so-called“catering”investment in the short term to mitigate the risk of stock price decline.However,investment with the catering purpose cannot be sustained in the long term,the relationship between firm investment and stock price crash risk will eventually be an inverted U-shaped.Stock price crash risk is also found to affect investor sentiment,which acts as a mediator in affecting the relationship between firm investment and stock price crash risk.The empirical results in this paper support these hypotheses,confirming the catering channel theory,which is of strategic significance to the investment behavior of China’s A-share listed companies.In response to the risk of stock crash,enterprises can enhance the market and investor confidence through investment,but they cannot simply maintain the stability of stock price by continuous additional investment without focusing on investment and internal management quality,because when the company has been developed can it really meet the needs of investors.

关 键 词：公司治理 股价崩盘风险 企业投资 投资者情绪 迎合理论 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F275