基于STAMP-ISM的铁路危险品运输系统风险-事故分析方法  

Risk-accident analysis method of railway dangerous goods transportation system based on STAMP-ISM

作　　者：张玥[1,2,3,4] 帅斌 尹德志[1,2,3,4] 张锐[1,2,3,4] 徐逸飞 于耀程 黄文成[1,2,3,4] ZHANG Yue;SHUAI Bin;YIN Dezhi;ZHANG Rui;XU Yifei;YU Yaocheng;HUANG Wencheng(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Intergrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都611756 [3]综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都611756 [4]西南交通大学系统科学与系统工程研究所,四川成都611756

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2020年第9期147-153,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173177);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72001179);国家铁路局科技计划项目(KF2013-020,KF2014-041);西南交通大学研究生创新实验实践项目(YC201507103);西南交通大学研究生学术培养提升计划(跨学科创新培育)专题项目(2018KXK04)。

摘　　要：为预防铁路危险品运输系统事故的发生,采用STAMP-ISM模型分析铁路危险品运输系统风险-事故。首先,利用STAMP模型详细分析事故,得到控制结构的相关安全约束、不充分控制行为及产生原因,以及系统的安全动态变化;其次,采用ISM分析事故致因因素之间的关联关系并划分层级;最后,基于STAMP和ISM分析结果提出系统改进方案。以我国一起匿名夹带事故为背景进行案例研究,结果表明,ISM模型的加入可深入挖掘事故因素间的相互关系,为事故致因因素重要度划分层级,分析结果及建议更具针对性。In order to prevent the accidents in the railway dangerous goods transportation system,a STAMP-ISM model was used to analyze the risk-accident of the railway dangerous goods transportation system.Firstly,the STAMP model was used to analyze the accidents in detail,then the relevant safety constraints of the control structure,the inadequate control behavior and causes were obtained,as well as the safety dynamic change of the system.Secondly,the ISM was used to analyze the correlation between the accident-causing factors and divide the levels.Finally,the system improvement scheme was proposed based on the analysis results of STAMP and ISM.The case study was conducted by taking an anonymous entrainment accident in China as the background.The results showed that the addition of ISM model could dig deeper into the interrelation between the accident factors,and divide the levels for the importance of accident-causing factors,then the analysis results and suggestions were more targeted.

关 键 词：铁路危险品运输 系统风险-事故分析 事故预防 系统理论事故模型与过程 解释结构模型 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]