中国收入机会不平等的趋势与成因:1989-2015  

Trends and Causes of Inequality of Opportunity in Income in China: 1989-2015

作　　者：蔡媛媛 郭继强[2,3] 费舒澜[4,5] Cai Yuanyuan;Guo Jiqiang;Fei Shulan(School of Public Affair;School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058;School of Public Administration,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院 [2]浙江大学经济学院,杭州310058 [3]浙江大学民生保障与公共治理研究中心,杭州310058 [4]浙江大学公共政策研究院,杭州310018 [5]浙江财经大学公共管理学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2020年第10期13-24,156,共13页Zhejiang Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“户籍一元化对城乡收入差距的作用机制与影响效应研究”(17CJY010)。

摘　　要：本文采用Roemer关于收入不平等来源的经典界定方法,利用CHNS1989-2015数据测算收入机会不平等的趋势,提供更加可靠的收入机会不平等估值区间,并进一步分解得到各类可观测环境因素对机会不平等的贡献。结果发现:收入机会不平等在1989-2004年间持续上升,2004-2015年间波动中趋于下降。收入机会不平等具有出生队列异质性,相较60后群体,70后和80后群体面临的机会空间有所收缩。收入机会不平等的结构性构成有所变化。自2004年以来,出生队列的贡献度始终保持相当规模,户籍的贡献度逐步降低,父代收入的贡献度趋于增强。本文将收入机会不平等的动态变化归因于经济体制变迁、享有权利变化以及家庭资源传递,并就促进收入分配领域的机会平等提出相关建议。Based on Roemer’s classic definition of the sources of income inequality,this paper uses the data of CHNS 1989-2015 to calculate the trend of inequality of opportunity(IO)in income,provides a more reliable estimation interval of IO,and further decomposes the contribution of various observable environmental factors to IO.The results show that:The valuation of the upper and lower bounds of IO has a consistent change trend,which keeps rising continuously from 1989 to 2004,and tends to decline in the fluctuation from 2004 to 2015.The IO in income has the heterogeneity of birth cohort.Compared with the post-60 s group,the opportunity space faced by the post-70 s and post-80 s group has shrunk.The structural composition of IO in income has changed.Since 2004,the contribution of the birth cohort has maintained at a considerable scale,the contribution of the household registration has gradually reduced,and the contribution of the father’s income tends to enhance.This paper attributes the dynamic change of IO in income to the change of economic system,the change of enjoyment of rights and the transfer of family resources.We put forward relevant proposals to promote equal opportunity in income distribution.

关 键 词：收入分配 机会不平等 固定效应模型 Shapley值分解 成因 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]