中国养老金改革的逻辑和福利效果:基于人口“数量-质量”转换的视角  

The Logic and Social Welfare Effects of China's Pension Reform:An Analysis from the Perspective of Population Quantity-Quality Transformation

作　　者：张熠[1] 张书博[1] 汪润泉 ZHANG Yi;ZHANG Shubo;WANG Runquan(School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;School of Public Administration,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,200433 [2]南京财经大学公共管理学院,210023

出　　处：《经济研究》2020年第8期188-205,共18页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71503154)资助。

摘　　要：本文通过世代交叠模型,分析了我国人口结构沿着“数量-质量”前沿边界转换,即少子化伴随人力资本进步时,养老金体系最优的代际再分配水平。分析表明:(1)如果仅面临少子化,我国养老金体系的确应转向积累制,但快速的人力资本进步完全可以补偿少子化的冲击,使现收现付制仍是最优选择。如果考虑到代际公平性,甚至政府需要加强现收现付制,使老年世代分享经济发展的成果。(2)基于“数量-质量”前沿边界转换的模型内生出我国较高的养老保险费率、退休前工资替代率和制度内赡养率,较低的社会平均工资替代率和人口赡养率等许多令人困惑的典型事实。(3)在此理论框架下,无论不做实个人账户,还是加强缴费受益关联、延迟退休以及建立“养老金-工资挂钩机制”都有利于增进社会福利。看似矛盾的中国养老金改革实践或许具有逻辑自洽性。To deal with its aging population,China started systemic pension reform through transferring from PAYGO to the partial fund program in the 1990s.However,in practice,the reform seems to be“looking right but going left.”The“funded individual accounts”emphasized in policy are operated as“non-financial accounts”in reality.The pension fund is meant to continuously improve the pension benefits of the elderly.In terms of redistribution,on the one hand,the government has strengthened the intergenerational transfer payment through the PAYGO system;on the other hand,it has weakened the intragenerational transfer payment and enhanced the connection between pension benefits and contributions.Strengthening the connection between benefits and contributions is intended to curb moral hazard.Conversely,improving the overall level of benefits might lead to early retirement and serious moral hazard problems.What are the social welfare outcomes of these seemingly contradictory reforms?Logically speaking,can these reforms be self-consistent?It is worth noting that China's low fertility and aging population are accompanied by rapid intergenerational human capital progress.Therefore,whether the continuous improvement in population quality can make up for the shortage in population quantity,and whether the PAYGO system remains the optimal policy are questions to be answered.We use an overlapping generation model to assume that the economy moves along a frontier of a population quantity-quality tradeoff,which assumes that the fertility rate decreases and human capital increases.The research results show that when the rapid progress of human capital can fully compensate for the impact of the low fertility rate,the PAYGO system is the best choice.This finding can explain some of the characteristics of“looking right but going left”in China's pension reform.The model,in incorporating intergenerational fairness,shows that in the rapid progress of human capital,the government should increase the degree of intergenerational tran

关 键 词：人力资本 少子化 现收现付制 代际公平 养老金改革 

分 类 号：F24[经济管理—劳动经济]