China’s BRI Transportation Investments:Development Bonanza or Debt Trap?  

作　　者：Jin Gang Shen Kunrong 金刚;沈坤荣(School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing,China)

机构地区：[1]School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing,China

出　　处：《China Economist》2020年第5期30-44,共15页中国经济学人（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Youth Program“Study on the Diffusion Mechanism and Policy Effects of Local Environmental Management Policies:an Example of the‘River Chief System’”(Grant No.:71903085);the National Social Science Foundation of China Key Research Program“Study on BRI Trade and Investment Liberalization and Facilitation:Quantitative Evaluation and Implementation Strategies”(Grant No.:18VDL014)”;the National Social Science Foundation of China Key Program“Study on China’s Economic Growth Potentials and Drivers”(Grant No.:14ZDA023)。

摘　　要：Based on the China Global Investment Tracker(CGIT)database of 2005-2018,this paper creates a country-sector-year panel set for a study on the BRI’s investment effects on the transportation sector of BRI countries using the difference-in-differencesin-differences(DDD)method.Our study finds that the BRI has significantly increased transportation investments by Chinese companies in the BRI countries without causing significant rise in problem transactions.The"debt trap"narrative that the BRI aims to take control over host countries’sovereign rights in exchange for debt write-offs is not supported by evidence.Discussions on sub-samples reveal that the BRI has mainly propelled SOEs in making transportation investments to generate development effects in host countries,most of which are Asian countries,and that the preferred mode of investment is cross-border M&As.

关 键 词：the Belt and Road Initiative transportation investment development effect debt trap 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]