税制结构、收入分配与总产出  

Tax Structure,Income Distribution and Aggregate Output

作　　者：刘元生[1] 李建军[1] 王文甫[1] LIU Yuansheng;LI Jianjun;WANG Wenfu(The Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,611130)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税务学院,611130

出　　处：《财贸经济》2020年第9期39-54,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“收入分布、财富分布动态演化机制与房地产税调节效应研究”(18YJC790108);国家社会科学基金项目“中国宏观经济不确定性测量、效应及其传导机制研究”(18BJL027)。

摘　　要：提高直接税比重是我国重要的税收制度改革取向,那么税收结构的变化将会如何影响宏观经济?本文在一个具有不完全竞争市场、流动和非流动性资产、名义刚性的异质性个体新凯恩斯宏观经济模型中加入劳动所得税、资本所得税和消费税制度,在税收收入中性约束下进行税制结构转变政策模拟实验,研究提高直接税占比的税制结构转换对收入分配和经济产出的影响。研究发现,保持总税收收入稳定时,劳动所得税占比提高可以缩小收入和财富分配差距,同时会导致劳动供给减少,抑制消费和投资,进而降低总产出;资本所得税占比提高可以公平财富分配,同时会较大程度地抑制投资,引起总产出减少。这表明税制结构调整面临效率与公平之间的权衡取舍,税制结构应当与社会偏好和经济发展阶段相适应。提高直接税比重宜作为长期目标选择,审慎且渐进地推进。Increasing the proportion of direct taxes is an important direction of China's tax reform,so how will the adjustment to the tax structure affect the macro economy?This paper adds labor income tax,capital income tax and consumption tax to a new Keynesian macroeconomic model with heterogeneous individuals characterized by imperfectly competitive markets,liquid and illiquid assets,and nominal rigidity.With the restriction of tax revenue neutrality,we performed two simulations to study the impact of a tax structure shift with an increased share of direct taxes on income distribution and economic output.The results show that under the condition of tax income neutrality,with the ratio of labor income tax increasing,the aggregate output,consumption,and investment decrease,while the inequality of income and wealth distribution declines.If the ratio of capital income tax rises,the aggregate output will decrease too,especially the investment will reduce substantially,but the wealth inequality will lower to some extent.The simulations in this paper indicate that the reform of tax structure faces the trade-off between efficiency and equality.China should speed up the transformation of government function,and gradually optimize the tax structure based on tax reduction and exemption.

关 键 词：税制结构 异质性个体 经济增长 收入分配 

分 类 号：F810.4[经济管理—财政学]