风险感知、风险态度与农户风险管理工具采纳意愿——以农业保险和“保险+期货”为例  

Risk Perception,Risk Attitude and Farmers’Willingness to Adopt Risk Management Strategies:A Case Study of Crop Insurance and“Insurance+Futures”

作　　者：尚燕 熊涛 李崇光[1] Shang Yan;Xiong Tao;Li Chongguang

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国农村观察》2020年第5期52-72,共21页China Rural Survey

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于动态模型平均的区间型预测技术及在农产品期货市场的应用研究”(项目编号:71771101);国家自然科学基金面上项目“‘金融化’背景下我国期货与现货市场风险评价与传导研究”(项目编号:71673103)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省和辽宁省417户玉米种植农户的调查数据,以农业保险与“保险+期货”为例,探讨农户风险感知、风险态度与风险管理工具采纳意愿的关系。首先,本文运用风险矩阵测量农户的风险感知,利用多元价格序列设计测量农户的风险态度;其次,采用Logit模型和层次回归验证风险感知、风险态度对农户风险管理工具采纳意愿影响的作用机制;最后,探究影响农户风险感知的因素,并对比农户风险感知水平与风险的实际发生情况。研究结果表明,68.6%的农户为风险规避型,分别有95.5%、91.6%和93.0%的农户对干旱、病虫害与价格风险的感知水平较高,且农户的干旱和价格风险感知水平与风险的实际发生情况较为吻合。农户对洪水、暴雨的风险感知水平低于风险的实际发生情况;农户的风险感知水平越高,对风险管理工具的采纳意愿就越强烈。农户的风险规避态度能提高其参与农业保险的意愿,但对其参与“保险+期货”的意愿无显著影响,且农户的风险规避态度将抑制其自然风险感知对参与农业保险意愿的促进作用。This study conducts a structured survey of 417 farmers in Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang and Liaoning to explore the relationship between farmers’risk perception,risk attitude,and their willingness to adopt risk management tools in the examples of crop insurance and“insurance+futures”.First,the study uses the risk matrix and lottery experiment to measure farmers’risk perception and risk attitude.Second,it adopts the Logit model and hierarchical regression to verify the influencing mechanism of risk perception and risk attitude on farmers’willingness to adopt risk management tools.Finally,it explores the factors that influence farmers’risk perception and compares the level of farmers’risk perception with the actual risks.The results show that 68.6% of the farmers under survey are risk-averse.Farmers’risk perception of drought,plant diseases and price risks are higher,and their risk perception level of drought and price risks is found to be consistent with the actual occurrence of risks,while their perception of flood and rainstorm disasters is lower than that of the actual occurrence of risks.The higher the level of risk perception is,the stronger the willingness they have to adopt risk management strategies.Risk aversion attitude can improve farmers’willingness to participate in crop insurance but it has no significant impact on their willingness to participate in“insurance+futures”.Farmers’risk-aversion attitude can restrain the promotion effect of natural risk perception on their willingness to participate in crop insurance.

关 键 词：风险感知 风险态度 农业保险 “保险+期货” 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]