基于MAS模型的农户农地流转行为决策过程、机理与模拟研究--以安徽省为例  

Decision Process,Mechanism and Simulation of Farmers’Farmland Transfer Behavior Based on MAS Model:A Case Study of Anhui Province

作　　者：朱勇 梁栋栋 徐玉婷 ZHU Yong;LIANG Dongdong;XU Yuting(College of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2020年第5期126-132,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41871180,71603003,41401123)。

摘　　要：利用安徽省413户农户调查数据,在分析农户流转心理和行为的基础上,揭示农户流转行为决策过程、机理,构建多智能体强化学习模型模拟农户决策过程。结果表明:(1)农户农地流转决策的行为准则并非是完全经济理性的,多元目标决策是决策过程的典型特征;(2)不同类型流转户决策过程具有一致性,但流转意愿形成的主控因子存在差异性,转入户基于自身资源禀赋的判断起主导作用,转出户基于家庭收入是否满足生计需求的判断起主导作用。农户农地流转决策行为形成机制是一个由多元目标决策动机影响决策态度从而导致决策行为的过程,实质是农户面临风险的决策过程,其决策机理与行为经济学中的前景理论相符。Based on the analysis of 413 household survey data in Anhui Province,this paper reveals the decision-making process and mechanism of farmer turnover behavior based on the analysis of farmers’turnover psychology and behavior,and constructs a multi-agent reinforcement learning model to simulate the decision-making process of farmers.The results show that:(1)The behavioral norms of farmer’s agricultural land transfer decision-making are not completely economic rational,and multi-objective decision-making is a typical feature of the decision-making process;(2)The decision-making process of different types of transfer-oriented households is consistent,the main body of transfer willingness is formed.There are differences in the control factors,and the transfer-in households play a leading role based on the judgment of their own resource endowments.The transfer-out households play a leading role based on whether the household income meets the needs of livelihoods.The formation mechanism of farmer’s agricultural land transfer decision-making behavior is a process in which multi-objective decision-making motivation influences decision-making attitude and leads to decision-making behavior.The essence is the decision-making process of farmers facing risk,and its decision-making mechanism is consistent with the prospect theory in behavioral economics.

关 键 词：农地流转 农户行为 决策过程模拟 多智能体 前景理论 安徽省 

分 类 号：F301.3[经济管理—产业经济]