基于聚类分析和时间差分的减税降费空间研究  

A Study on the Room for Tax Cut and Fee Reduction Based on Clustering Analysis and Time Difference

作　　者：隋京岐 张雷 王浩源 王家琪 Sui Jingqi;Zhang Lei;Wang Haoyuan;Wang Jiaqi(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学数学与统计学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期16-22,共7页Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(11801047、11501065);重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTC2018jcyjAX0490)。

摘　　要：为探讨重庆市不同行业的减税降费空间,本文通过平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验对宏观税负变化与GDP增长率的关系进行验证;引入行业税负差和产业税负差,利用基于余弦距离的聚类分析对比不同行业间的税负差异;建立基于时间差分的减税降费差分比模型,求解得到不同行业的税负增长率.最终研究发现,短期内重庆市宏观税负与GDP增长率之间存在因果关系,并且房地产业、住宿和餐饮业的减税降费空间较大.To explore the room for tax cut and fee reduction of different industries in Chongqing,this paper verifies the relationship between the change of macro tax burden and the GDP growth through tests of stationarity,co-integration and Granger causality,introduces industry tax burden difference of trade and industry,uses cluster analysis based on cosine distance to compare the tax burden difference among different industries,establishes the difference ratio model of tax cut and fee reduction based on time difference,and gets tax burden growth in different industries.Finally,the research finds that there is a causal relationship between the macro tax burden and GDP growth rate in Chongqing in the short term,and there is a large room for tax cut and fee reduction in the real estate industry,accommodation and catering industry.

关 键 词：格兰杰因果检验 宏观税负水平 减税降费 聚类分析 时间差分 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]