Contribution of Global Warming and Atmospheric Circulation to the Hottest Spring in Eastern China in 2018  

作　　者：Chunhui LU Ying SUN Nikolaos CHRISTIDIS Peter ASTOTT 

机构地区：[1]National Climate Center,Laboratory for Climate Studies,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China [2]Met Office Hadley Centre,Met Office,Exeter EX13PB,UK [3]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2020年第11期1285-1294,共10页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1507702);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41775082);Y.SUN was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600701);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41790471);N.CHRISTIDIS and P.A.STOTT were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS,Defra;the UK−China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund,China.

摘　　要：The spring of 2018 was the hottest on record since 1951 over eastern China based on station observations,being 2.5°C higher than the 1961−90 mean and with more than 900 stations reaching the record spring mean temperature.This event exerted serious impacts in the region on agriculture,plant phenology,electricity transmission systems,and human health.In this paper,the contributions of human-induced climate change and anomalous anticyclonic circulation to this event are investigated using the newly homogenized observations and updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme events,as well as CanESM2(Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model)simulations.Results indicate that both anthropogenic influences and anomalous anticyclonic circulation played significant roles in increasing the probability of the 2018 hottest spring.Quantitative estimates of the probability ratio show that anthropogenic forcing may have increased the chance of this event by ten-fold,while the anomalous circulation increased it by approximately two-fold.The persistent anomalous anticyclonic circulation located on the north side of China blocked the air with lower temperature from high latitudes into eastern China.Without anthropogenic forcing or without the anomalous circulation in northern China,the occurrence probability of the extreme warm spring is significantly reduced.

关 键 词：extreme warm spring extreme event attribution anthropogenic influence circulation effect 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467