资本回报率宏观核算法的进一步改进和再测算  

Further Improvement and Re-calculation on the Macro Accounting Methods of Return on Capital

作　　者：王开科 曾五一 Wang Kaike;Zeng Wuyi

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学统计学院 [2]国家社科基金统计学科组

出　　处：《统计研究》2020年第9期11-23,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“资本存量核算理论、方法研究与相关数据库建设”(15ZDB135);国家社科基金重点项目“资本存量估算理论方法与应用研究”(15ATJ002)。

摘　　要：已有研究对资本回报率的宏观核算方法进行了一系列改进,但在资本报酬处理和资本存量估计方面仍未达成共识,导致资本回报率测算结果存在较大差异。本文参照《OECD资本测算手册2009》,梳理分析了资本回报率的内涵及其宏观核算方法的演进脉络,探讨了资本回报率测算时的资本存量口径问题,提出了将"具有生产能力的资本存量"纳入核算方法中进行测算的设想,设计了将生产税净额中由资本创造部分进行剥离,以及针对个体经营业主混合收入和国有农场营业盈余进行调整的思路和改进方法。再测算结果显示:1978-2017年我国税后实际资本回报率在7.28%~13.05%之间,这一结果在走势上能有效刻画资本回报率的阶段变化特征,并印证了已有的相关统计数据。本文所做的工作,对于从宏观核算角度改进资本回报率的测算精度和完善我国的资本核算研究有积极的意义。Previous research has made a series of improvements on the macro accounting method of the return on capital,but there is still no consensus on the treatment of capital remuneration and the estimation of capital stock,so that there is a large difference in the calculation results of the return on capital.Based on Measuring Capital-OECD Manual 2009,this paper analyzes the connotation of the return on capital and the evolution of the macro accounting method.It explores the caliber of capital stock when measuring the return on capital and puts forward the idea that the"capital stock with production capacity"should be used as the basis for calculation.We propose improvement methods to separate the net production tax from the capital creation part,and adjust the mixed income of the self-employed and the operating surplus of the state farms.The recalculation results show that the real rate of return on capital after taxation was between 7.28%and 13.05%during 1978 to 2017.The measurement results can effectively describe the characteristics of the stage change of the return on capital and confirm the existing statistical data.The work done in this paper has positive significance to improve the measurement precision of return on capital from the perspective of macro accounting and improve the research of capital accounting in China.

关 键 词：资本回报率 核算法 资本存量 资本报酬 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]