互联网技能会带来农村居民的消费升级吗?--基于CSS2015数据的实证分析  

Do Internet Skills Contribute to the Consumption Upgrading of Rural Residents?--Evidence from Chinese Social Survey 2015

作　　者：祝仲坤 Zhu Zhongkun

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院

出　　处：《统计研究》2020年第9期68-81,共14页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“数字鸿沟对农户福利不平等的影响机理与效应研究——基于Sen的可行能力理论”(71903062);全国统计科学研究重点项目“农村数字鸿沟的统计测度及对农民福利的影响效应研究”(2019LZ31)。

摘　　要：互联网正逐步与"三农"领域相互融合,重塑着农村居民的消费行为观念。为此,本文结合CSS2015数据,系统探究互联网与农村居民消费升级的关系。研究发现:①互联网技能会显著提高平均消费倾向与文娱消费倾向,降低恩格尔系数,在运用倾向得分匹配法纠正选择性偏误,运用处理效应模型和两阶段最小二乘法控制潜在的内生性偏误后,研究结论仍然稳健,即互联网技能可以释放农村居民的消费潜力、优化农村居民的消费结构,推动农村消费升级;②随着分位点提高,互联网技能对农村居民平均消费倾向的影响呈现倒U型态势,对恩格尔系数的影响呈现U型态势,相比之下,互联网技能只对高分位点文娱消费倾向有显著正向促进作用;③互联网技能会增加中部、西部及东北地区农村居民消费需求,优化东部地区的消费结构。以上结论有助于认清互联网对农村居民消费行为的深层影响。The Internet is gradually integrated with agriculture,rural areas,and rural people,reshaping the consumption behavior concept of rural residents.We systematically examine whether Internet skills promote the consumption upgrading of rural residents,using the data of the Chinese Social Survey in 2015.The results show that:1)Internet skills contribute to improving the average consumption propensity and entertainment consumption of rural residents significantly,and reduce Engel coefficient.After we use the propensity score matching method to address the self-selection bias,employ the treatment effects model and two-stage least squares method to control the potential endogenous errors,the conclusion is still robust.2)With the increase of quantile,the impact of Internet skills on rural residents’average consumption propensity presents an inverted U-shaped trend,and the impact on Engel coefficient presents a U-shaped trend.By contrast,Internet skills only have a significant positive effect on the high-quantile consumption propensity of entertainment.3)Internet skills will release the consumption potential of rural residents in the central,western and northeast regions of China and optimize the consumption structure of rural residents in the eastern region.The above conclusions will help to clarify the deep impact of the Internet on rural residents’consumption behavior.

关 键 词：农村居民 互联网技能 平均消费倾向 恩格尔系数 消费结构 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]