公共服务在中国经济增长中的作用--基于人口结构和人口聚集的研究  

The Role of Public Services in China's Economic Growth:Based on Population Structure and Population Aggregation

作　　者：李庄园[1] Li Zhuangyuan(College of Economics,Hebei University)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《人口研究》2020年第5期92-107,共16页Population Research

基　　金：2019年国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国实现经济发展的人口回旋空间及其作用研究”(19ARK002)的阶段性成果;河北大学优秀博士培养项目“公共服务优化与经济发展动态机制研究”(YB201401)的支持

摘　　要：改革开放40年来,中国经济实现了持续快速增长的奇迹。当工业化和社会化发展到一定程度,公共服务的供给更是熨平贫富收入差距和非均衡发展、维护社会公平正义、实现人们美好生活的重要途径。如何在经济持续增长与公共服务质量和水平提升之间实现平衡?公共服务能否促进经济发展?其作用途径又是如何呢?采用中国1994年税制改革以来省级面板数据,运用面板计量分析的方法,调整人口变量影响,引入公共服务变量为核心解释变量并构建其作用途径模型,探讨公共服务在经济增长中的作用。得出在人口增长放缓、结构转变老化和城市人口集聚进程中,公共服务提升对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,是经济发展重要源泉的结论。After 40 years of economic reform, China’s economy has achieved a miracle of sustained and rapid growth. For an industrialized society, public services can narrow the income gap between the rich and the poor, coordinate unbalanced development, maintain social equity and justice, and improve people’s life. How to achieve a balance between sustained economic growth and the improvement of the quality and level of public services? Can public services promote economic development? What is the mechanism? Based on provincial panel data from 1994 when China’s tax reform started, this research uses econometric panel analysis methods to examine the role of public services in economic growth. Specifically, we treat the public services as the core variables in the analytical model and explore how they affect economic growth after controlling for population structure, population aggregation and other factors. Empirical evidence shows that in the era of slow population growth, population aging, and urban population agglomeration, the improvement of public services has a significant role in promoting economic growth and is an important source of economic development.

关 键 词：人口因素 公共服务 经济增长 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F124