人口老龄化对产业结构升级的空间效应研究——基于省级面板数据  

Spatial Effect of Aging of the Population on Industrial Structure Upgrading—Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：曹泽[1] 汤玉琳 Cao Ze;Tang Yulin(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学经济管理学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《洛阳师范学院学报》2020年第10期56-60,共5页Journal of Luoyang Normal University

摘　　要：利用中国2008—2017年省级面板数据,采用邻接矩阵,使用杜宾模型分析人口老龄化对产业结构升级是否具有空间效应以及溢出效应,考察人口老龄化对产业间的资源利用水平、高级化以及产业结构整体的影响。得出老龄化对推动产业结构高级化以及提高产业升级整体速度在1%的显著性水平下为促进作用,且空间溢出性显著,但人口老龄化对产业升级的合理化具有显著的阻碍作用。人力资本的增加不仅有助于推动本地区的产业结构升级,对邻近地区的溢出效应也是显著的。这表明人口老龄化会促进产业结构升级却并不利于资源在三次产业间的合理分配。同时随着少儿抚养比提高,未来的劳动参与率提高会改善这一问题。The provincial panel data of China from 2008 to 2017,the adjacency matrix,and the Durbin model are used to analyze whether the aging of the population has spatial and spillover effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,and to investigate the overall influence of the aging of the population on the level of resource utilization among industries,industrial upgrading and the industrial structure.It is concluded that the aging of the population promotes the upgrading of industrial structure and improves the overall speed of industrial upgrading at a significant level of 1%,and the spatial spillover is significant.However,the aging of the population has a significant impediment to the rationalization of industrial upgrading.The improvement of human capital not only helps to promote the upgrading of industrial structure,but also has a significant spillover effect on neighboring areas.All these indicate that the aging of the population will promote the upgrading of industrial structure,but it is not conducive to the rational allocation of resources among the three industries.At the same time,with the increase of child dependency ratio,the increase of labor participation rate in the future will improve this condition.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 产业结构升级 省级面板数据 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F269.2[经济管理—国民经济]