一种非电传爆系统的全局灵敏度分析研究  

Global Sensitivity Analysis on Non-electric Detonation Transfer System

作　　者：程蕾 王晓鹏 夏艳[1] 王宇锐[1] 范新中[1] Cheng Lei;Wang Xiao-peng;Xia Yan;Wang Yu-rui;Fan Xin-zhong(China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing,100076)

机构地区：[1]中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京100076

出　　处：《导弹与航天运载技术》2020年第5期25-31,共7页Missiles and Space Vehicles

摘　　要：采用全概率方法建立非电传爆系统可靠度与传爆环节可靠度的不确定性传递模型,将应用广泛的Sobol全局灵敏度指标推广到非电传爆系统,并采用发展成熟的数值模拟法(Monte Carlo,MC)与单层数值模拟法(Single Monte Carlo,SMC)对指标进行求解,得到各传爆环节可靠度的重要性排序。根据所得重要性排序,即可有针对性地逐步提高重要传爆环节的可靠度以达到提高系统可靠度的目的。所提指标及方法应用到某非电传爆系统中,证实了其有效性及合理性。Probability formula method is applied to construct the uncertainty propagation model between reliability of the non-electric detonation transfer system and reliability of intermediate links.Widely used Sobol’s global sensitivity index is extended to the non-electric detonation transfer system,then Monte Carlo(MC)and Single Monte Carlo(SMC)methods are introduced to obtain the importance rank of the inputs,i.e.reliability of intermediate links.Thus researchers can gradually improve the system reliability according to the importance rank.Effectiveness and rationality of the proposed index and method are finally proved by the example.

关 键 词：非电传爆系统 全概率方法 Sobol全局灵敏度指标 数值模拟 重要性排序 

分 类 号：V421.7[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]