基于CCK模型的不同层次商品房市场购房者羊群行为研究  

Research on Herding Behavior of Buyers in Different Levels of Commercial Housing Market Based on CCK Model

作　　者：白雄 韩锦绵[1] 刘顺文 BAI Xiong;HAN Jinmian;LIU Shunwen(Northwest University,Xi’an 710100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《工程经济》2020年第9期72-76,共5页ENGINEERING ECONOMY

摘　　要：通过测算各省商品房收益率与市场平均收益率偏离度两个指标,并将该指标用于非线性CCK模型,检验2012-2018年我国商品房市场、住宅商品房市场和非住宅商品房市场中是否存在羊群行为,并进一步按照东部、中部、西部地区进行区域异质性探究并提出相应的建议。研究发现:与商品房市场与非住宅商品房市场相比,非住宅商品房市场羊群行为更为明显。此外,我国不同地区房地产市场中的羊群行为存在明显的差异,以西部地区最为明显。在同一地区中,不同层次的商品房市场也存在明显差异。By measuring the deviation degree between the return rate of commercial housing in each province and the average return rate in the market,and applying this index to the nonlinear CCK model,the paper tests whether there was herd behavior in the commercial housing market of different levels in China from 2012 to 2018.Moreover,further explores the regional heterogeneity according to the eastern,central and western regions,and puts forward corresponding suggestions.Shows that compared with the commercial housing market and the nonresidential housing market,the herd behavior is more obvious in the non-residential housing market.In addition,the herd behavior is significantly different in different regions of China,especially in the western region.In the same area,different levels of commercial housing market also have obvious differences.

关 键 词：非线性CCK模型 商品房市场 羊群行为 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]