中国能耗、大气污染物排放与碳排放强度关系的协整检验——基于2000~2017年数据  

Cointegration Test of the Relationship Among Energy Consumption,Air Pollutant Emission and Carbon Emission Intensity in China——Based on the Data from 2000 to 2017

作　　者：宋杰鲲[1] 江娌娜 赵志浩 张业蒙 吕高天 SONG Jiekun;JIANG Lina;ZHAO Zhihao;ZHANG Yemeng;LYU Gaotian(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2020年第5期1-7,共7页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学科学研究规划基金项目(16YJAZH054);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2016GQ06);国家自然科学基金项目(71871222)。

摘　　要：选取能耗强度、煤炭消费比例作为能耗的强度和结构指标,SO2排放量作为大气污染物排放指标,应用2000~2017年上述指标和CO2排放强度指标数值构建协整方程,对中国能耗、大气污染物排放总量与碳排放强度关系进行检验。结果表明,能耗总量、煤炭消费比例和SO2排放量每减小1%,CO2排放强度可以分别减小1.122823%、0.291525%和0.110033%;能耗总量和煤炭消费比例每减小1%,SO2排放量可分别减小0.019573%、2.37775%。Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解进一步证实了节能、减排和降碳之间的协同效应。Energy consumption intensity and the ratio of coal consumption are selected as the indexes of the intensity and structure of energy consumption.SO2 emission is the index of the air pollutant emission.Based on the data of the above indexes and CO2 emission intensity data from 2000 to 2017,the cointegration equations are constructed to test the relationship among energy consumption,air pollutant emission and carbon emission intensity in China.The results show that the CO2 emission intensity reduces by 1.122823%,0.291525% and 0.110033% respectively with the total energy consumption and the ration of the coal consumption as well as the SO2 emissions reducing by 1%.The SO2 emission reduces by 0.019573% and 2.37775% respectively with the total energy consumption and the ratio of the coal consumption reducing by 1%.The synergy effect of the energy saving and emission reducing as well as the carbon decreasing is further confirmed by the Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.

关 键 词：能源消耗 大气污染物排放 碳排放强度 协整检验 

分 类 号：X323[环境科学与工程—环境工程]