地方政府债务、固定资产投资与经济增长关系研究——基于东北三省111个县(市)数据的分析  

Research of the Relationship between the Local Government Debt,Fixed Asset Investment and Economic Growth——Analysis Based on Data of 111 Counties(cities)in the Three Northeastern Provinces

作　　者：张晓晖[1] 张传娜 Zhang Xiao-hui;Zhang Chuan-na(Jilin Province Financial Cultural Center,Changchun Finance College,Changchun Jilin 130028;Jilin Province Rural Finance Reform Research Center,Changchun Finance College,Changchun Jilin 130028)

机构地区：[1]长春金融高等专科学校吉林省金融文化研究中心,吉林长春130028 [2]长春金融高等专科学校吉林省农村金融改革研究中心,吉林长春130028

出　　处：《经济纵横》2020年第8期100-107,共8页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：吉林省社科联项目“吉林省防范和化解金融风险对策研究”(编号:2019JLSKWT002);吉林省职业教育与成人教育教学改革研究项目“吉林省职业教育与区域经济协调发展机制研究”(编号:2019ZCY241);吉林省教育厅“十三五”社会科学研究项目“吉林省营商环境优化问题研究”(编号:JJKH201913405K)的成果。

摘　　要：利用东北三省111个县(市)2015—2017年的面板数据,构建双门槛面板回归模型,对地方政府债务、固定资产投资与经济增长的关系进行分析。研究发现:县域层面地方政府债务对经济增长有显著的门槛效应,且存在8.82%和24.34%两个门槛值。当地方政府负债率低于24.34%时,增加地方政府债务能促进经济增长,且当地方政府负债率在8.82%~24.34%之间时,增加地方政府债务对经济增长的作用比地方政府负债率低于8.82%时大;而当地方政府负债率超过24.34%时,增加地方政府债务不会对经济增长产生显著影响。样本期内,固定资产投资对经济增长的作用是负向的,表明资本存量已超过经济发展所需要的水平,通过固定资产投资来促进经济增长不可持续。地方政府负债率越高,固定资产投资对经济增长的抑制作用越强。可见,地方政府不能为了追求短期的经济增长而盲目举债、盲目投资。地方政府举债、进行固定资产投资前,应做好长期规划,同时加大处置、置换地方政府现有存量债务力度,进一步改善营商环境。Based on the panel data of 111 counties(cities)in Northeast China from 2015 to 2017,a double threshold panel regression model is constructed to analyze the relationship between local government debt,fixed asset investment and economic growth.The results show that the county level local government debt has significant threshold effect on economic growth,and there are two thresholds,8.82%and 24.34%respectively.When the debt ratio of local government is lower than 24.34%,increasing local government debt can promote economic growth,and when the debt ratio of local government is between 8.82%and 24.34%,the effect of increasing local government debt on economic growth is greater than when the debt ratio of local government is lower than 8.82%;when the debt ratio of local government is higher than 24.34%,increasing local government debt will not have a significant impact on economic growth.The effect of fixed asset investment on economic growth is negative,indicating that the capital stock has exceeded the level required by economic development,and it is not sustainable to promote economic growth through fixed asset investment.The higher the debt ratio of local government,the stronger the inhibition of fixed asset investment on economic growth.It can be seen that local governments should not blindly borrow or invest in pursuit of short-term economic growth.Before raising debts and investing in fixed assets,local governments should make long-term plans,and at the same time increase their efforts to dispose and replace existing local government debt stocks to further improve the business environment.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 固定资产投资 经济增长 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]