我国货币政策与宏观审慎政策的互动协调研究——基于中国商业银行数据的实证检验  

An Empirical Study on the Interaction betweenMonetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Policy in China:An Empirical Test Based on Chinese Commercial Bank Data

作　　者：王春丽[1] Wang Chun-li(Institute of Asia-Pacific Economic,Fujian Academy of Social Sciences,Fuzhou Fujian 350001)

机构地区：[1]福建社会科学院亚太经济研究所,福建福州350001

出　　处：《经济纵横》2020年第9期99-108,共10页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：福建省社会科学规划项目“‘双支柱’调控框架的互动与协调问题研究”(编号:FJ2019B017)的成果。

摘　　要：宏观审慎政策的主要调控目标是防范系统性风险和维护金融稳定,而货币政策的主要调控目标是物价稳定和经济增长,但从实际运行过程看,宏观审慎政策与货币政策并不是完全独立,而会通过特定政策工具的使用相互联系、相互影响。为此,本文依据货币政策与宏观审慎政策互动协调的理论框架,借助我国159家商业银行2003—2017年度动态面板数据,采用GMM估计方法实证检验了货币政策与宏观审慎政策对金融风险的影响及二者在同步应对金融风险过程中的配合效应。结果表明:就单个政策而言,货币政策与宏观审慎政策对金融风险的调节作用都是有限的。要想提高二者配合效应的显著程度,就必须在政策工具的使用上进行协调与配合,尤其要加强政策使用时间和实施幅度上的协调与配合,主要考虑政策工具在幅度上的偏差会带来实施效果的偏差,尽量避免用力过猛或用力不足产生与政策目标的偏离现象。在具体政策的使用过程中,应从大框架着手,政策管理部门要对可能存在的政策叠加和政策冲突进行综合判断,并跟踪政策反应情况,以降低政策实施成本。为确保宏观审慎政策对系统性风险的有效管理,货币政策在以价格稳定为目标时,就不能仅考虑一般物价渠道,还应将资产价格因素考虑在内。The main objective of macro-prudential policy is to prevent systemic risks and maintain financial stability,while the main objective of monetary policy is price stability and economic growth.However,from the perspective of the actual operation process,macro-prudential policy and monetary policy are not completely independent but are interconnected and influenced by the use of specific policy instruments.Therefore,based on the theoretical framework of interaction and coordination between monetary policy and macro-prudential policy,according to the dynamic panel data of 159 commercial banks in China in 2003—2017,this paper empirically tests the influence of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy on financial risk and their coordination effect in the process of synchronous dealing with financial risk.The results show that both monetary policy and macro-prudential policy have limited effects on financial risk adjustment.If we want to improve the remarkable degree of the coordination effect,we must carry on the coordination and cooperation in the use of the policy tool.

关 键 词：货币政策 宏观审慎政策 互动协调 商业银行 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]