科创板企业投资价值的智能预测研究——基于财务绩效视角的分析  

Research on Intelligent Prediction of Investment Value of Sci-tech Innovation Board Enterprises——Analysis based on the perspective of financial performance

作　　者：刘垠 范钛[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川工商学院金融学院 [2]西南民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第6期109-112,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：企业内在价值决定投资价值,而财务绩效又能反映企业投资价值。因此,本文以2005-2019年科创板34家上市公司为研究对象,从财务绩效视角构建涉及盈利能力、资产质量、债务风险和经营增长四个维度共18项指标变量,构建SMOTE-PSO-SVM模型对科创板企业投资价值进行智能预测研究。实证结果表明:线性核函数下的SMOTE-PSO-SVM具有最高的预测精度以及最为稳定的预测性能。本文提出的SMOTE-PSO-SVM模型可以帮助投资者提前对科创板企业的投资价值进行预测,从而使投资者提前制定更为完善的投资策略,最终实现投资盈利。The intrinsic value of an enterprise determines the value of investment,and financial performance can reflect the value of enterprise investment.Therefore,this article takes 34 listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board from 2005 to 2019 as the research object,and constructs 18 indicator variables in four dimensions involving profitability,asset quality,debt risk,and operating growth from the perspective of financial performance.The SMOTE-PSO-SVM model intelligently predicts the investment value of science and technology innovation board companies.The empirical results show that the SMOTE-PSO-SVM under the linear kernel function has the highest prediction accuracy and the most stable prediction performance.The SMOTE-PSO-SVM model proposed in this paper can help investors predict the investment value of sci-tech innovation board companies in advance,so that investors can formulate more complete investment strategies in advance,and ultimately achieve investment profits.

关 键 词：科创板企业 投资价值 智能预测 SMOTE-PSO-SVM模型 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F275