农村剩余劳动力迁移的影响因素分析——托达罗模型的修正及实证检验  

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor Force——The Modification and Empirical Test of Todaro Model

作　　者：李东阳 樊春良 LI Dongyang;FAN Chunliang(School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049

出　　处：《经济与管理》2020年第5期28-35,共8页Economy and Management

摘　　要：托达罗模型的内容和我国当前的实际状况存在显著差异,因而在比较优势的框架下,分析影响劳动力迁移的决策因素,在此基础上构建托达罗修正模型。随后基于修正模型对“民工荒”现象展开计量分析且得到了较为科学合理的解释。结论表明:通过将预期城乡收入差距完善为城镇剩余因素和农村剩余因素,调整宏观就业概率为具体领域的就业概率,将教育技能因素、心理成本因素、制度因素和农村剩余劳动力因素明确加入所构建的托达罗修正模型,能对当前劳动力城乡流动的现实问题作出更加翔实和深刻的解释。The content of the Todaro model differs significantly from the actual situation in China.Therefore,under the framework of comparative advantage,the decision factors influencing labor migration are analyzed,and the Todaro correction model is constructed on this basis.The Todaro correction model is then used to analyze the phenomenon of"migrant labor shortage"and a more scientific and reasonable explanation is obtained.The conclusion shows that by perfecting the expected urban-rural income gap into urban and rural residual factors,adjusting the macro employment probability into the employment probability of specific fields,and explicitly adding education and skill factors,psychological cost factors,institutional factors,and rural residual labor factors into the constructed Todaro correction model,a more detailed and profound explanation of the reality of the current urban-rural labor mobility can be provided.

关 键 词：决策因素 托达罗修正模型 民工荒 计量检验 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]