贸易摩擦背景下美国利率调整对中国企业的影响效应研究  

Research on the Effect of US Interest Rate Adjustment on Chinese Enterprises against the Background of Trade Frictions

作　　者：马理[1] 彭承亮 夏巍宇 Ma Li;Peng Chengliang;Xia Weiyu(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2020年第9期14-22,共9页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“经济新常态下中国金融开放与金融安全研究”(17JZD015);国家自然科学基金项目“参数和模型不确定情形下的中国货币政策规则:理论模型与计量经济检验”(71803041);教育部人文社会科学青年项目“非线性和时变前瞻性货币政策规则:实时数据分析和模型选择检验”(17YJC790106);湖南省金融工程和金融管理研究中心项目“转型经济条件下的中国金融状况指数构建与动态行为研究”(18FEFMY1)资助。

摘　　要：本文基于微观视角,从企业的融资成本、净收益和风险等多个层面,探索贸易摩擦背景下美国利率调整对中国企业的影响机理与影响效果。研究结果显示:美国的利率调整对中国企业具有负向影响,造成了企业的融资成本上升、净收益下降和风险上升;贸易摩擦抑制了中国企业的发展;美国利率调整与贸易摩擦的影响效果具有异质性特征,非国有企业、制造业和中西部地区的企业受损更加严重。建议中国央行加大定向调控的力度,关注实体企业发展,利用灵活多样的定向调控引导资金流向受影响较大的行业与产业。同时,加大对非国有企业、制造业和中西部地区企业的支持力度,推动企业自主创新能力的提高。The US interest rate adjustment and trade frictions may have a great impact on the development of Chinese enterprises.Previous scholars paid more attention to the spillover effect of US interest rate adjustment or trade frictions on the macro-economy of other countries,but less attention to the micro impact on other countries'enterprises against the background of trade frictions.From the micro-perspective,this paper attempts to explore the influence mechanism of US interest rate adjustment on Chinese enterprises against the background of trade frictions from the aspects of financing cost,net income and risk,and use the micro data of Chinese A-share listed companies to establish panel data regression model for empirical test.The research results show that the US interest rate adjustment has a negative pressure on Chinese enterprises,resulting in the increase of financing cost,the decrease of net income and the rise of risk.Trade frictions inhibit the development of Chinese enterprises.The effect of US interest rate adjustment and trade frictions on different types of Chinese enterprises is heterogeneous,with non-state-owned enterprises,manufacturing industries and enterprises in the central and western regions suffering more.The conclusions are that the central bank should increase the intensity of targeted regulation,pay more attention to the development of manufacturing enterprises,and use diversified forms of targeted regulation to guide the flow of funds to the industries that are greatly affected.The government should give more support to non-state-owned enterprises,manufacturing industries and enterprises in the central and western regions,and improve the independent innovation ability of enterprises.

关 键 词：美国利率调整 贸易摩擦 中国企业 影响效应 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学] F742