当前正规与非正规货币市场对货币政策传导效应差异研究——来自全国银行间市场与温州数据的经验  

A Study on the Difference between the Transmission Effects of Formal and Informal Currency Markets on Monetary Policy at present——Experience from national inter-bank funding center and Wenzhou data

作　　者：杨咸月[1] 李朕 胡骞文 Yang Xianyue;Li Zhen;Hu Qianwen(Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《上海经济》2020年第5期88-117,共30页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金:中国网贷市场逆向选择、道德风险与信贷配给71773022;济宁学院青年科研基金:利用VAR模型测度中国货币政策有效性。

摘　　要：本文将全部期限的正规货币市场利率与非正规货币市场利率放在一起进行分析,通过比较不同市场内部的期限结构,解释二者对于货币政策的不同响应机制。研究发现:正规货币市场利率与非正规货币市场利率严重分割,只有微弱的信息联系;正规货币市场短期资金供给过剩而长期资金需求过剩,价格型货币政策可以比较好的引导长期市场利率而数量型货币政策只能造成暂时影响;非正规货币市场存在利率期限倒挂,以短期资金供求为主,且与中央银行缺乏直接联系,价格型政策对非正规货币市场影响不明确,数量型货币政策可以影响短期市场利率。当务之急,是要优化正规货币市场资金供求期限结构,防止短期资金在正规货币市场长期沉淀;培育鼓励各地民间线下货币市场发展,缓解小微企业短期资金供求对接矛盾;开拓非正规货币市场获得中央银行流动性的渠道;妥善处理货币政策价格信号与数量效应,防止出现“大水漫灌”现象。This paper analyzes the interest rate of the formal money market and the interest rate of the informal currency market for all term structure together,and explains the different response mechanisms of the two to monetary policy by comparing the term structures in different markets.The paper found:Informal money market interest rates are severely separated from formal money market interest rates,and only weak information links;In the formal money market,the short-term capital supply is oversupply and the long-term capital demand is excessive.The price monetary policy tool can better guide the long-term market interest rate,while the quantitative monetary policy tool can only cause temporary impact.In the informal currency market,interest rate terms are inverted,mainly based on shortterm capital supply and demand,and lack of direct contact with the central bank.The impact of price-based policies on the informal currency market is unclear,and quantitative monetary policies can affect short-term market interest rates.The most urgent task is to optimize the term structure of the supply and demand of funds in the formal currency market and prevent shortterm funds from accumulating in the formal currency market for a long time;nurture and encourage the development of private offline currency markets everywhere,ease the contradiction between the supply and demand of shortterm funds for small and micro enterprises;open up the informal currency market to obtain the central government Channels for bank liquidity;properly handle price signals and quantitative effects of monetary policy to prevent the occurrence of“flood irrigation”.

关 键 词：非正规货币市场 货币政策响应 差异 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]