利用乘数法结合男男同性社交软件开展深圳市男男性行为者规模估计研究  

Population size of men who have sex with men in Shenzhen,China using multiplier method combined with gay geo-social networking software

作　　者：张克春 曹赫 胡甜 陈雅锜 林启辉 孟晓军[2] 邹华春 ZHANG Ke-chun;CAO He;HU Tian;CHEN Ya-qi;LIN Qi-hui;MENG Xiao-jun;ZOU Hua-chun(Center for Disease Control and Prevention Longhua,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518109,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市龙华区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518109 [2]无锡市疾病预防控制中心,江苏无锡214023 [3]中山大学公共卫生学院(深圳),广东深圳518107

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2020年第19期3549-3552,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：深圳市龙华区引进高层次医学团队项目(HLPM201907020105);“十三五”国家重大传染病专项(2018ZX10721102);国家自然科学基金青年项目(81703278)。

摘　　要：目的估计深圳市男男性行为者(Men who have sex with men,MSM)规模,为进一步开展艾滋病疫情估计提供人群规模数据。方法采用滚雪球抽样的方法,在深圳市MSM活动的酒吧、夜总会、浴室等场所,招募384名研究对象。采用乘数法公式(N=r×m)估计深圳市MSM规模。通过与男性社交软件Blued所属软件公司合作,线上统计连续1周内各天登陆过软件的人数,即为乘数法中的参数r;通过开展现场调查,收集调查对象在连续1周内各天登陆过Blued 6.5.6软件的比例,该比例的倒数即为乘数法中的参数m。结果深圳市MSM规模估计为130050人(95%CI:127517~132583)。有深圳市户籍的MSM人数为23669(95%CI=23208~24130),无深圳市户籍的MSM人数为106381(95%CI=104309~108453);流动的MSM人数为13525(95%CI=13262~13789),常住的MSM人数为116525(95%CI=114255~118794);性取向为同性的MSM人数为88044(95%CI=86329~89759),性取向为异性的MSM人数为7153(95%CI=7013~7292),性取向为双性的MSM人数为25100(95%CI=24611~25589),性取向为不确定的MSM人数为9884(95%CI=9691~10076);为同性提供过商业性服务的MSM人数为16907(95%CI=16577~17236)。结论利用乘数法结合男性社交软件估计MSM的人群规模具有一定的可行性和可信性,值得推广。Objective To estimate population size of men who have sex with men(MSM)in Shenzhen,China in order to provide evidences for AIDS epidemic estimation.Methods Snowball sampling method was used to recruit 384 MSM in Shenzhen city in gay-bar,nightclub,shower room,etc.Multiplier method was chosen to estimate population size of MSM in Shenzhen,China.Through the cooperation with Blued 6.5.6 software affiliated company,online statistics of the number of MSM who log in to Blued 6.5.6 software every day for a continuous week was taken as the parameter of r in multiplier method.A cross-sectional study was conducted among MSM to collect their login information in each day for one week during the same time period and then the reciprocal of login proportion of MSM respondents was calculated as the parameter of m.Finally the population size of MSM was estimated using calculation formula:N=r×m.Results The population size of MSM in Shenzhen,China was about 130050(95%CI:23208~24130),among whom 23669(95%CI:23208~24130)were household registered MSM and 106381(95%CI:104309~108453)were non-household registered MSM.A number of 13525(95%CI:13262~13789)were migrant MSM and 116525(95%CI:114255~118794)were permanent residents.There were about 88044(95%CI:86329~89759)gay men compared to 25100(95%CI:24611~25589)bisexual men,7153(95%CI:7013~7292)heterosexual MSM and 9884(95%CI:9691~10076)men with uncertain sexual orientation.A total of 16907(95%CI:16577~17236)MSM reported having provided commercial sexual service for men.Conclusion Using multiplier method to estimate population size of MSM combined with gay geo-social networking software seems to be practicable and credible which is worth popularization.

关 键 词：男男性行为者 人群规模估计 乘数法 社交软件 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]