高铁发展对中国交通系统的影响分析  

Analysis of impact of high-speed rail development on China's transportation system

作　　者：胡宸然 周俊菊[1] Hu Chenran;Zhou Junju

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《现代城市轨道交通》2020年第10期34-40,共7页Modern Urban Transit

摘　　要：利用中国国家统计局整理的2003年—2018年各类交通数据与国民经济数据,使用层次分析法、函数拟合法与灰色系统数学方法对它们的内在联系与变化趋势进行深入分析,研究中国高铁发展对居民交通工具选择结构、高速公路车辆通行压力以及汽车市场需求的影响,研究结果表明:高铁对旅客具有较高的吸引力;高铁的快速发展对中国人口流动具有较显著的贡献,高铁对高速公路车辆通行减压具有较高的贡献并会使汽车市场需求量在原有增长趋势上相对减缓。Using the China's National Bureau statistics of 2003-2018 all kinds of traffic data and the data of the national economy,the article uses analytic hierarchy process,function-fitting method and grey system mathematics method to analysis their inner link and the change trend,to research the influence of China's highspeed rail development on residents transportation choice structure,highway traffic pressure and the automobile market demand.The research results show that high-speed rail is highly attractive to passengers,high-speed rail has a significant contribution to China's population mobility,high-speed railway has a higher contribution to highway traffic pressure reduction and will make the automobile market demand relatively slow down.

关 键 词：高速铁路 交通工具选择 高速公路车辆通行压力 汽车市场需求 

分 类 号：U238[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]