全面二孩政策对育龄女性生育意愿和生育计划的影响研究  

Study on the influence of universal two-child policy on fertility intention and the second child plan among women of childbearing age

作　　者：方莹莹 王莹[1] 杜志成 王宁宁 郝元涛[1] FANG Ying-ying;WANG Ying;DU Zhi-cheng;WANG Ning-ning;HAO Yuan-tao(School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510080,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院,广东广州510080 [2]广州医科大学公共卫生学院,广东广州511436

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2020年第18期3348-3352,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中华医学基金会(16-253)。

摘　　要：目的研究全面二孩政策对育龄女性生育意愿和生育计划的影响,探索提高生育率的可行性策略。方法采用秩和检验和卡方检验比较生育意愿和生育计划的变化和差异,混合效应模型用于分析生育意愿和生育计划的影响因素。结果就生育意愿而言,育龄女性2014年平均理想子女数量为1.96个而2016年为2.08个,有医疗保险者理想子女数量较无医疗保险者多0.09个(P<0.05)。就生育计划而言,政策前有二孩计划的研究对象占30.41%而政策后为22.86%;有医疗保险(OR=1.60)、父母双方都在(OR=2.16)、理想子女数量(OR=3.19)越多的女性生育二孩的可能性越大。结论全面二孩政策后育龄女性生育意愿增高而生育计划水平降低;扩大医疗保险覆盖率可同时提高生育意愿和生育计划,而增强女性生育意愿,加快建设0~3岁婴幼儿照护服务体系将有助于促进育龄妇女的生育计划。Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of universal two-child policy on fertility intention and the second child plan among women of childbearing age,and to explore feasibility strategies to increase the fertility of women of childbearing age.Methods Rank sum test and chi-square test were used to compare the changes and differences of fertility intention and the second child fertility plan,and to explore their influencing factors by mixed-effects model.Results In terms of fertility intention,the average number of ideal children for women of childbearing age was 1.96 in 2014 and was 2.08 in 2016,and the number of ideal children of those with medical insurance was 0.09 more than those without medical insurance(P<0.05).As far as the second child planning,30.41%of the research subjects had two-child birth plan before universal two-child policy,but the rate decreased to 22.86%after the policy.The women with medical insurance(OR=1.60),both parents alive(OR=2.16),with higher fertility intention(OR=3.19)were more likely to birth two children.Conclusion After the universal two-child policy,women of childbearing age had a higher willingness to have children,but were less likely to have the second child fertility plan.Expanding the coverage of medical insurance can increase the fertility intention and the second child fertility plan.Raising the fertility intention of female and speeding up the construction of 0-3 years old infant care service system may be helpful to enhance the second child fertility plan of women of childbearing age.

关 键 词：全面二孩政策 育龄期女性 生育意愿 生育计划 

分 类 号：R169[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]