基于ISO聚类-最大似然法的洪涝灾害风险区划——以吴川市为例  

Assessment of Flood Risk Based on ISO Clustering and Maximum Likelihood Method——Taking Wuchuan City as an Example

作　　者：柳杨[1] 宋菲燕 林凯荣 林波[1] LIU Yang;SONG Feiyan;LIN Kairong;LIN Bo(Guangdong Hydropower Planning&Design Institute,Guangzhou 510635,China;School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Marine Civil Engineering,Zhuhai 519082,China;Research Center of Water Resource and Environment,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利电力勘测设计研究院,广东广州510635 [2]中山大学土木工程学院,广东珠海519082 [3]广州海洋土木工程重点实验室,广东珠海519082 [4]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第10期13-21,共9页Pearl River

基　　金：国家优秀青年科学基金项目(51822908);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779279);广东省特支计划百千万工程青年拔尖人才计划(42150001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(20lgjc04)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化背景下,极端天气尤其是强降雨、风暴潮等正在成为沿海地区洪涝灾害的重要影响因素,危及当地人民的生命财产安全。以吴川市为研究对象,以镇、街道为单位建立洪涝风险灾害评价模型,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力3个方面选取指标进行评价体系构建,基于ArcGIS平台进行空间叠加分析,用ISO聚类-最大似然法将风险性划分为微、低、中、高、极高5个风险等级,并将评价结果划分成5个风险区。研究表明,吴川市洪涝灾害风险整体处于中等风险级别,风险值为3.04;空间上表现为中西部高,东南部低的分布特征。与吴川市易涝点实际调查数据的对比验证显示,91%的易涝点分布在极高风险和高风险区域,说明本次评价结果具有较高的精度,可以为当地洪涝灾害的防治提供参考。Under the background of global climate change,extreme weather,especially heavy rainfall and storm surge,is becoming an important influencing factor of flood disaster in coastal areas,endangering the safety of local people's lives and property.Taking Wuchuan City as the research area,with towns and streets as units,this paper establishes the flood risk assessment model based on the assessment indexes from three aspects of factor risk,vulnerability of hazard-bearing body,disaster prevention and mitigation ability,conducts space overlay analysis through ArcGIS platform,divides the flood risk into micro,low,medium,high and extremely high with ISO clustering-maximum likelihood method,and classifies Wuchunan City into five risk areas according to the assessment results.The results indicate that:the flood disaster risk in Wuchuan City is at the medium risk level as a whole,with a risk value of 3.04,and higher in the mid-west region and lower in the southeast region for the spatial distribution.After comparison validation with the survey data of prone flood points in Wuchuan City,it is indicated that 91%of them are located in the extremely high-risk and high-risk areas,which shows that the assessment results are relatively accurate and can be great of reference for the prevention and control of local flood disaster.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 风险区划 GIS ISO聚类 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]