新世纪我国新移民跨国迁移影响因素实证分析  

Empirical Analyses on the Influence factors of the New-Generation Overseas Chinese Migrating Across Borders in the New Century

作　　者：李可爱[1] 王君[1] Li Keai;Wang Jun(Huaqiao University,Quanzhou,Fujian,China 362021)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《八桂侨刊》2020年第3期29-38,共10页Overseas Chinese Journal of Bagui

基　　金：福建省社会科学规划项目(批准号:FJ2017B092);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目·华侨大学哲学社会科学青年学者成长工程项目(批准号:15SKGCQT01);中国博士后科学基金第60批面上资助项目(批准号:2016M602057)。

摘　　要：跟早期的移民相比,我国新移民表现出明显的代际变化特征。依据国际移民引力模型对2000—2016年我国新移民跨国迁移的面板数据进行计量回归,目的是从实证层面考察其跨国迁移的影响因素。综合来看,对外移民的传统影响因素如经济规模、人均收入水平、人口规模及地理距离依然是影响我国新移民跨国迁移的主要因素,且回归结果基本符合移民引力模型的预期,但相对于东道国的整体经济规模,其经济发展程度越高越吸引新移民流入;随着新移民的代际变化,东道国的制度水平和教育资源成为影响我国新移民跨国迁移的重要因素,但基础设施的回归结果不显著;东道国的自然资源越丰裕,我国新移民流入越多,符合国际经济学要素跨国流动理论,且东道国劳动力市场竞争程度越高,我国新移民跨国迁移的数量越少。中国政府可以通过保持国民经济持续健康发展、不断提高国民收入水平、深化改革健全制度、提高教育水平、完善基础设施建设等具体措施来避免人才进一步流失。Compared with the earlier overseas Chinese,the new-generation overseas Chinese show obvious characteristics of intergenerational changes.The Influence factors of the new-generation overseas Chinese migrating cross borders should be analyzed from the econometrics aspects.By using the gravity model according to the panel data of the new-generation overseas Chinese ftom 2000 to 2016,the results show that the traditional factors such as the size of the economies,the level of per capita income,the scale of population and the geographic distance are still the main influencing factors of the new-generation overseas Chinese migrating across borders.The regression results are basically in line with the expectations of the migration gravity model,but comparing with the overall economic scale of the host countries,the economic development degree of the host countries is more attracting.Along with the intergenerational changes of the new-generation overseas Chinese,factors such as the host countries,institutional quality and educational resources are more important in their immigration across borders.The regression result of host countries'infrastructure is not significant.The more abundant natural resources the host countries have,more new-generation overseas Chinese flow into the host countries,which is in according with the theory of factor flow across borders.The higher degree of the host countries'labor market competition is,less numbers of the new-generation overseas Chinese flow into the host countries.Chinese government can take certain steps such as maintaining sustained and healthy development of national economy,constantly improving the level of national income,deepening reform,and improving system,improving the education level and providing better infrastructure to avoid further brain drain.

关 键 词：新移民 跨国迁移 影响因素 

分 类 号：D632.4[政治法律—政治学]