基于面板数据的江西省农业机械总动力影响因素研究  

Influencing Factors of Agricultural Machinery Total Power in Jiangxi Province Based on Panel Data

作　　者：张丽娜 曹建斌 刘建村 徐郑 赵庆亮[1] 王艳 李道义[1] ZHANG Lina;CAO Jianbin;LIU Jiancun;XU Zheng;ZHAO Qingliang;WANG Yan;LI Daoyi(Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Sciences,Beijing 100083,China;Guangdong Modern Agricultural Equipment Research Institute,Guangzhou Guangdong 510635,China;Chongqing Tongnan District Agricultural Technology Investment(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 402679,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业机械化科学研究院,北京100083 [2]广东省现代农业装备研究所,广东广州510635 [3]重庆市潼南区农业科技投资(集团)有限公司,重庆402679

出　　处：《农业工程》2020年第8期17-21,共5页AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

基　　金：广东省2018年省级乡村振兴战略专项(项目编号:粤农技〔2018〕34号);国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(项目编号:2018YFD0700602)。

摘　　要：为明确影响农业机械总动力增长变化的主要原因,根据江西省1994—2018年的相关统计资料,选取种植结构、粮食产量、农民人均可支配收入、第一产业就业人员占比和江西省财政总收入5个影响江西省农机总动力增长的主要指标,采用多元回归分析法,解释影响江西省水稻农业机械化总动力变化的主要因素,包括粮食播种面积占比(即粮食作物播种面积占总农作物播种面积比值)和第一产业就业人员占比。结合江西省的实际情况提出稳定粮食播种面积,创造良好的耕作环境,综合考虑政策因素、技术因素因地制宜制定合理的补贴政策等具体对策及建议。In order to determine main reasons for change of agricultural machinery total power,according to relevant statistical data of Jiangxi province from 1994 to 2018,five main indicators affecting total power growth of agricultural machinery in Jiangxi province were selected,including planting structure,grain output,per capita disposable income of farmers,proportion of employment in the primary industry and total financial income of Jiangxi province.By using method of stepwise multiple regression analysis,main factors influencing change of rice agricultural machinery total power in Jiangxi province were explained as planting structure(i.e.ratio of rice planting area to total planting area of crops)and proportion of the first industry employees.Combined with actual situation of Jiangxi province,some specific countermeasures and suggestions were put forward,such as stabilizing grain planting area,creating a good farming environment,comprehensively considering policy factors and technical factors,and formulating reasonable subsidy policies according to local conditions.

关 键 词：江西省 农业机械总动力 多元回归分析 影响因素 

分 类 号：S21[农业科学—农业机械化工程]