山东夏季极端热事件变化特征分析  

Analysis on spatio-temporal characteristics of summer extreme hot events in Shandong from 1961 to 2019

作　　者：董旭光[1] 周强 刘焕彬[1] 邱粲[1] 高理[1] 曹洁[1] DONG Xuguang;ZHOU Qiang;LIU Huanbin;QIU Can;GAO Li;CAO Jie(Shandong Climate Center, Jinan 250031, China;Shandong Meteorological Service Center, Jinan 250031, China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气候中心,山东济南250031 [2]山东省气象服务中心,山东济南250031

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2020年第3期60-76,共17页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF202037);山东省气象局研究项目(2018sdqxz03,2018sdqxm22)。

摘　　要：利用山东88个气象站1961—2019年夏季6—8月逐日最高、最低气温观测数据,分析了山东各地极端热昼、极端热夜、极端高温日三个极端热事件的时空演变规律和突变特征。结果表明:1)山东夜间出现极端热事件及白天和夜间同时出现极端热事件的天数增多、强度增强、占比增加。历年极端热昼出现天数和占比均呈不同程度的减少趋势,平均强度呈减小趋势,其中占比减少最明显;极端热夜、极端高温日出现天数和占比均呈不同程度的增加趋势,平均强度呈增强趋势。2)山东内陆和沿海地区各极端热事件变化差异明显。内陆地区极端热昼各指标减少、减小趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验,半岛南部和东部部分区域则有增加、增强趋势;中西部地区极端热夜各指标增加、增强趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验;中东部区域尤其是半岛地区极端高温日各指标增加、增强趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验。3)各极端热事件不同指标的突变情况迥异。极端热昼历年出现天数没有发生突变,平均强度在1970年前后发生突变,突变发生后,平均强度明显减小;极端热夜出现天数和平均强度均在1994年前后发生突变,突变发生后,出现天数明显增加、平均强度明显增强;极端高温日出现天数和强度分别在1994年、1973年前后发生突变,突变发生后,出现天数明显增加。Based on the observation data of daily maximum and minimum temperature between June and August from 1961 to 2019 from 88 meteorological stations in Shandong,the spatio-temporal variation and mutation characteristics of the extreme hot daytime,extreme hot nighttime,extreme hot days are analyzed using three extreme temperature indices.The results are shown below.1)The number of extreme hot events that happened in the nighttime and happened both in the daytime and nighttime increases with stronger intensity and higher frequency.The annual frequency,proportion,and mean intensity of extreme hot daytime have decreasing tendency,and the decreasing tendency of proportion is the most significant;the annual frequency,proportion,and mean intensity of extreme hot nighttime and extreme hot days have increasing tendency.2)The variations of extreme hot events in inland and coastal regions of Shandong are obviously different.The indices of extreme hot daytime have significantly decreasing tendency in inland areas and the variation tendency in most areas passes the significance test at 0.05 level,while the indices have increasing tendency in some areas of the south and east of Shandong Peninsula;the indices of extreme hot nighttime have significantly increasing tendency in the middle and west of Shandong and the variation tendency in most areas passes the significance test at 0.05 level;the indices of extreme hot days have significantly increasing tendency in the middle and east of Shandong,especially in Shandong Peninsula,and the variation tendency in most areas passes the significance test at 0.05 level.3)The mutations of the extreme hot events’indices are varied.For extreme hot daytime,the frequency does not mutate,the mean intensity mutates around 1970,and the mean intensity have obviously decreased since the mutation;for extreme hot nighttime,the frequency and mean intensity both mutate around 1994,and the frequency and mean intensity have obviously increased since the mutation;for extreme hot days,the frequency and intens

关 键 词：极端热事件 百分位阈值 时空变化 突变特征 山东 

分 类 号：P412[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]