Reliability estimation of rotary lip seal in aircraft utility system based on time-varying dependence degradation model and its experimental validation  

作　　者：Chao ZHANG Rentong CHEN Guanghan BAI Shaoping WANG Mileta MTOMOVIC 

机构地区：[1]School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100083,China [2]Research Institute of Frontier Science,Beihang University,Beijing 100083,China [3]College of Intelligent Science and Technology,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China [4]Engineering Technology Department,Old Dominion University,Norfolk,VA 23529,USA

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》2020年第8期2230-2241,共12页中国航空学报（英文版）

基　　金：co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51875015,51620105010,51675019);Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality(L171003)。

摘　　要：With several attractive properties, rotary lip seals are widely used in aircraft utility system, and their reliability estimation has drawn more and more attention. This work proposes a reliability estimation approach based on time-varying dependence analysis. The dependence between the two performance indicators of rotary lip seals, namely leakage rate and friction torque, is modeled by time-varying copula function with polynomial to denote the time-varying parameters, and an efficient copula selection approach is utilized to select the optimal copula function. Parameter estimation is carried out based on a Bayesian method and the reliability during the whole lifetime is calculated based on a Monte Carlo method. Degradation test for rotary lip seal is conducted and the proposed model is validated by test data. The optimal copula function and optimal order of polynomial are determined based on test data. Results show that this model is effective in estimating the reliability of rotary lip seals and can achieve a better goodness of fit.

关 键 词：Bayesian approach Dependence analysis Reliability estimation Rotary lip seal Time-varying copula function 

分 类 号：V215[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]