自贸区与城市经济增长:资本、技术与市场化——基于PSM-DID的拟自然实验研究  

Free Trade Zone and Urban Economic Growth:Capital,Technology and Marketization--A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on PSM-DID

作　　者：张阿城 于业芹 Zhang Acheng;Yu Yeqin

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030 [2]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2020年第10期110-123,共14页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年面上项目“多目标分类下政府科技悬赏策略及其优化研究”(71974203)。

摘　　要：自由贸易试验区的设立是制度改革的试验田,是推动经济发展的重要增长极,但是自贸区的经济效应却一直未得到系统的理论阐释与实证检验。鉴于此,采用PSM-DID自然实验方法,构造反事实框架,匹配获得2009-2016年666个研究样本,实证检验了7个地级市自贸片区的经济增长效应,探索性构建“资本-技术-市场”分析框架,挖掘“自贸区推动经济增长”的作用机制。实证研究发现:第一,与未获批自贸区城市相比,获批自贸区的城市人均GDP增加0.849个单位,通过更换样本时间窗口、更换匹配方法、考虑到高新区建设、剔除离群值以及安慰剂等检验之后,这一结论是稳健的;第二,通过对作用机制的检验发现,自贸区建设依赖资本流动、技术创新促进城市经济增长,现阶段我国自贸区建设还主要以政府驱动为主,市场化改革变量并未起到中介作用。本文为自贸区扩容提供更加充分的城市层面微观证据,也为政府在自贸区进一步简政放权提供政策指引。The establishment of a FTZ is a test field for institutional reform and an important growth pole for economic development.However,the economic effects of the FTZ have not been systematically explained and empirically tested.Thus,this article uses the PSM-DID natural experiment method to construct a counter-factual framework and match to obtain a sample of 666 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2016.It has empirically tested the economic growth effects of 7 prefecture-level FTZs,and constructed the analysis framework of“Capital-Technology-Marketi-zation”to explore the mechanism.Empirical research finds that:First,compared with the unapproved FTZ cities,the per capital GDP of the cities approved by the FTZ increased by 0.849 units,this conclusion is robust after changing the time window,changing the matching method,taking into account the construction of HIDZs,excluding outliers,and placebo tests.Second,we found that the construction of the FTZ relies on capital flows and technological innovation to drive urban economic growth.Market-oriented reform variables have not played the role of intermediary mechanism.This study provides more sufficient micro-level evidence at the city level for the expansion of the FTZ,and also provides policy guidance for the government to further streamlining and delegating in the FTZ.

关 键 词：自由贸易试验区 城市经济增长 PSM-DID 作用机制 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—产业经济]