考虑心理偏好的内河通航安全投入多属性决策  

Psychological-Preference-Based Multiple Attribute Decision-Making on Investment for Inland Water Navigation Safety

作　　者：王磊 刘清[1,2] 董诗瑀 容敏敏 WANG Lei;LIU Qing;DONG Shiyu;RONG Minmin(School of Transportation,Wuhan UnieesiiyoeTechnoeogy,Wuhan 430063,China;National Engineeony Research Centar far Watar Transportation Safety,Wuhan UnieesiiyoeTechnoeogy,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,武汉430063

出　　处：《中国航海》2020年第3期33-40,共8页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51379171);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2017-zy-018)。

摘　　要：为择优实施内河通航安全监管和保障资源投入项目,提高安全投入效益,提出一种考虑心理偏好的关联型多属性决策模型。从成本和收益2方面出发,分层级识别安全投入的关键影响因素,并分别以区间数和三角模糊数采集初始数据;引入前景价值函数和权重函数,表达和量化损失规避、偏好逆转和参照依赖等决策者的“有限理性”偏好特征,以纠正理想化决策与非完全信息下决策的偏差;采用基于模糊测度的Choquet积分度量决策指标的互补或冗余度,并逐层集结评估数据,获得方案效益的绩效值。案例研究结果表明:该模型能有效反映决策者心理偏好与要素的交互关系,成本和收益均衡的方案具有最佳绩效,且属性关联会影响方案效益的绩效排序。该方法的决策过程更贴近现实,能更好地辅助通航安全投入决策。The psychological-preference-based multiple attribute decision-making model is designed to help plan the inland water navigation safety program. Major influence factors on cost and benefit of safety investment schemes are identified in hierarchical level basis. The initial data are collected in forms of the interval number and the triangular fuzzy number. The value function and the weight function in prospect theory are introduced to quantitatively reflect the "bounded rationality" features of decision makers, including loss aversion, preference reversal and reference point dependence, so that the idealized decision and the decision made with incomplete information can be corrected. Choquet integral on the basis of fuzzy measures is used to calculate the redundancy/complementarity of decision attributes and to aggregate the assessment values of attributes along with the hierarchical structure. The process gives the performance value of each safety investment scheme, indicating the effectiveness of the investment. The case study shows the model can effectively reflect the psychological preference of decision makers and the interaction between factors. The proposed model can better balance cost and benefit and prioritize the projects, and its decision-making process is closer to reality in safety investment schemes.

关 键 词：内河水运 多属性决策 CHOQUET积分 通航安全投入 前景理论 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]